The '2026 Yi Sun-sin Defense Industry Exhibition (YIDEX 2026)' held in Changwon, Gyeongnam, last April [Yonhap News file photo] 

Analysis suggests that South Korea's defense industry is reaping unintended benefits as the United States steps back from its role as the guarantor of global security and demands that allies increase their own defense burdens.

On the 20th (local time), the U.S. political media outlet Politico reported that President Donald Trump's scaling back of U.S. security commitments to Europe has left the continent in a state of anxiety, effectively paving the way for South Korea to emerge as a major player in the global arms trade.

The outlet noted that following the 1969 "Nixon Doctrine," in which then-U.S. President Richard Nixon declared that allies must take responsibility for their own security, South Korea, led by then-President Park Chung-hee, began investing heavily in its defense industry and aggressively securing production licenses for foreign weapons.

As a result, South Korea has now become the world's ninth-largest arms exporter and one of the fastest-growing players in the global defense market, the report assessed.

Furthermore, it stated that the combined projected revenue for South Korea's four major defense firms—Hanwha Group, Hyundai Rotem, LIG Nex1, and Korea Aerospace Industries (KAI)—is expected to reach $37 billion this year, nearly a fourfold increase compared to 2021.

In particular, the report highlighted that South Korea has risen to become the second-largest supplier of arms to NATO member states in Europe, following the United States.

Politico pointed out that President Trump has pressured NATO members to increase defense spending while sowing distrust in U.S. security commitments. It also noted significant dissatisfaction among member states regarding Trump’s actions, including the imposition of tariffs and harsh rhetoric toward allies.

Moreover, noting that demand for weapons is rising due to two major conflicts—the war in Ukraine and the war with Iran—the report stated, "All of these circumstances are creating fundamental uncertainty in the global arms market, and South Korea is ready to capitalize on it."

It specifically mentioned that since the start of the war in Ukraine, "South Korea has emerged as a reliable alternative supplier to nervous Eastern European governments," citing Poland's $13.7 billion arms deal, which made the country South Korea's largest client.

The report also stated that South Korean weaponry has received increasingly positive performance evaluations following the recent war involving Iran.

Politico identified South Korea's strengths in the defense industry as rapid delivery, cost-competitiveness, and an open approach to technology transfer and local production. It also analyzed that importing South Korean weapons carries less political baggage for purchasing nations.

The outlet noted, "Many Europeans do not favor the Trump administration. It is hard to imagine purchasing weapons from adversaries like China or Russia, and Israel's reputation has been tarnished by the war in Gaza."

However, it also projected that competition in the defense sector will gradually intensify, as European nations are stepping up efforts to foster their own defense industries and Japan is easing its restrictions on arms exports.