The Seoul Superintendent of Education election is shaping up to be a two-way race between candidate Jeong Geun-sik (left) and candidate Cho Jun-hyuk (right), following the failure to unify candidates by faction. [Photo=Yonhap News]The Seoul Superintendent of Education election is once again heading towards a showdown between incumbent Seoul Superintendent of Education Jeong Geun-sik and former National Assembly member Cho Jun-hyuk. 

Based solely on candidate registrations, the election in Seoul is a multi-candidate race with eight contenders. Both conservative and progressive factions failed to achieve complete unification, making the electoral landscape superficially complex with multiple candidates registering from each side. 

However, public opinion is moving in a different direction. While outwardly an eight-candidate contest, voter perception is converging on a rematch between Jeong Geun-sik and Cho Jun-hyuk as the central axis of the election.

In a survey conducted by the Korea Society Opinion Institute (KSOI) on May 12-13, commissioned by CBS, among 1,002 residents of Seoul aged 18 and over, candidate Jeong Geun-sik garnered 17.8% support, while candidate Cho Jun-hyuk received 12.8%. 

Candidate Yoon Ho-sang received 9.2%, candidate Han Man-jung 3.2%, and undecided voters accounted for 51.5%. In the same survey, support for conservative candidates was 40.9%, and for progressive candidates was 36.6%.

In a survey conducted by Joowon C&I on May 4-5, commissioned by Straight News, among 802 residents of Seoul aged 18 and over, candidate Jeong Geun-sik recorded 21.1% and candidate Cho Jun-hyuk 19.4%. 

Candidate Han Man-jung was in a close race with Cho, receiving 19.6%, but among conservatives, Cho Jun-hyuk significantly led Yoon Ho-sang with 6.8%. 

Although both surveys have limitations as they were conducted before candidate registration or during the ongoing unification debates, they clearly indicate that this Seoul Superintendent of Education election strongly carries the character of a rematch between Jeong Geun-sik and Cho Jun-hyuk.

Failure of Factional Unification

Public Opinion Shifts from Eight-Way Race to Two-Way Rematch

The Seoul Superintendent of Education election is one without party nominations. However, the actual elections have consistently been fought along factional lines concerning the direction of educational policy, perspectives on history education, the balance between teachers' rights and students' rights, and the restoration of basic academic skills.

This election is no different. The candidate registration results show an increased possibility of vote dispersion due to multiple conservative and progressive candidates running.

However, opinion polls indicate a narrowing of the field centered around Jeong Geun-sik and Cho Jun-hyuk.

The presence of other candidates serves as background variables that can sway the election. They are indicators of the failed complete unification and the internal rifts within each faction. 

However, at this stage, the primary axis explaining the electoral landscape is the re-election bid of Seoul Superintendent of Education Jeong Geun-sik and the renewed challenge from former National Assembly member Cho Jun-hyuk.

The fact that undecided voters account for more than half of the electorate means this election has not yet concluded as a contest of fixed voter bases. The decision of voters with relatively low interest in the superintendent election, who will choose the "direction of Seoul education" at the last minute, is likely to determine the outcome.

The two previously faced each other in the Seoul Superintendent of Education by-election in October 2024. At that time, Jeong Geun-sik secured 963,876 votes (50.24%), defeating Cho Jun-hyuk, who received 881,228 votes (45.93%) by a margin of 4.31 percentage points. The vote difference was 82,648 votes. 

This election is one that asks again about that result and revives various verification issues left over from the previous election process.

For Cho Jun-hyuk, this is an opportunity to avenge his 2024 defeat, and for Jeong Geun-sik, it is a chance to extend his short term, gained in the by-election, into a full term.

One side is likely to emphasize the continuity of progressive education policies that have followed the Jo Hee-yeon administration, while the other is likely to raise a "judgment" argument, prioritizing basic academic skills, teachers' rights, and the normalization of education.

This is why the Seoul Superintendent of Education election is being read as a Jeong Geun-sik versus Cho Jun-hyuk contest once again.

Previous Election Issues Resurface

The shadow of the 2024 by-election looms large over this rematch.

Following that election, some within the conservative camp raised concerns about the difference in vote shares between early voting and election day voting. Analyses suggested that candidate Cho Jun-hyuk showed strength in election day voting, while candidate Jeong Geun-sik was known to have led significantly in early voting, making the discrepancy between early and election day votes a point of contention.

Reports also emerged of some supporters raising claims of election fraud at the vote counting sites.

The Seoul Superintendent of Education election is characterized by low voter turnout. 

In elections with low turnout, the influence of organized votes, early voting participants, and factional cohesion on the results becomes significant. 

Therefore, the early voting controversy is not merely a historical issue. The early voting rate, election day turnout, and regional vote distribution are likely to receive renewed attention in this election.

In particular, if Jeong Geun-sik and Cho Jun-hyuk face each other again, the vote distribution from the 2024 by-election will serve as a crucial comparative benchmark for interpreting this election.

Past verification issues surrounding candidate Jeong Geun-sik may also resurface. 

During the 2024 by-election, this reporter (currently of The Hankook-Ilbo, formerly Sky Daily) reported exclusively that while candidate Jeong stated in a TV debate that he was "farming on farmland in Yongin every weekend," on-site verification revealed the land was overgrown with weeds.

Following this report, allegations of violations of the Farmland Act and false information disclosure under the Public Official Election Act were raised. Jeong's campaign explained it as a weekend farming intention, but the issue continued to the National Assembly's Education Committee's audit.

There was also a controversy regarding his eligibility as a 5·18 Democratic Patriot. 

This reporter exclusively reported in October 2024 that Jeong was confirmed as a 5·18 honoree. The core of this issue was not the fact of being an honoree itself. 

The point of contention was the extent to which the process of selection as a honoree, his views on history education, and the political neutrality of educational administration should be publicly verified for a candidate overseeing elementary, middle, and high school education in Seoul.

The fact that Jeong is a sociologist and a former head of an organization related to historical affairs also contributed to the escalation of this controversy.

The Race Hinges on Trust Verification, Not Just Policy

The verification points in this election do not simply stop at "who presented better educational pledges." 

For candidate Jeong Geun-sik, his brief tenure as the incumbent superintendent will be evaluated, along with the resurfacing of issues from the 2024 by-election: the early voting controversy, allegations of farmland law violations and false information disclosure, the controversy surrounding his 5·18 honoree status, and the political neutrality of history education.

For candidate Cho Jun-hyuk, the realism of conservative education policies, his balance on the issues of student rights ordinances and teachers' rights, and the feasibility of his pledge to restore basic academic skills will be subject to verification.

The Seoul Superintendent of Education election is quieter than the Seoul mayoral election, but its impact is significant. 

The superintendent determines the direction of the classroom, defines the relationship between teachers and students, and sets the standards for history education and life education. 

This is why the Seoul Superintendent of Education election is not just an administrative election but one where politics, ideology, and historical perceptions clash.

The surface of this election is a multi-candidate structure. 

However, its essence is a rematch. The re-election of Seoul Superintendent of Education Jeong Geun-sik and former National Assembly member Cho Jun-hyuk is an election that re-asks the outcome of the 2024 by-election and brings the early voting controversy and candidate verification issues left over from that time back to the trial stage. 

With undecided voters forming a majority, the outcome is not yet decided. 

The question Seoul voters will ask is singular. 

Will Seoul education continue in the same direction, or will its direction change?

※ This article was published in the 10th issue of The Hankook-Ilbo (3rd week of May).