The Spanish national football team in a match against Turkey during the 2026 North and Central America World Cup European qualifiers. [AP=Yonhap News photo]

 Global investment bank Goldman Sachs' prediction model has identified Spain as the top favorite to win the upcoming 2026 FIFA World Cup in North and Central America, which kicks off next month.

Reuters reported on the 30th (Korean time) that according to Goldman Sachs' prediction model, Spain has the highest probability of lifting the FIFA World Cup trophy this year at 26%.

France, the runner-up in the 2022 Qatar tournament, follows with 19%, and Argentina, the winner, is at 14%.

Brazil, the record holder for the most World Cup titles with five wins, is projected to have an 8% chance of winning, while England, the 'home of football', has a 5% possibility.

The bank stated that its prediction model is based on the 'Elo rating' system, derived from chess ranking methods, and reflects various factors such as a team's offensive capabilities, recent form and mentality, and geographical considerations.

It also mentioned that the probabilities are predicted using the results of approximately 20,000 international matches played since 1978, and that the predictions will be updated daily after each match concludes during the World Cup.

Spain ranks second in FIFA rankings, behind France, but holds the top position in the Elo rating and is highly rated for its scoring ability.

Argentina's chances of winning have been lowered due to the 'defending champion's curse,' where the previous tournament's winner tends to perform poorly in the next competition.

Furthermore, France, having reached the final in the last two consecutive tournaments and securing one win and one runner-up finish, is highly likely to face Spain in the semifinals of this North and Central America World Cup, according to Goldman Sachs' prediction model.

The bank indicated that its predictions generally align with bookmakers' odds. However, for England, the probability of winning was assessed lower than in the betting market due to past tournament underperformance and a potentially unfavorable draw.