North Korean leader Kim Jong Un inspects the newly operational fissile material production plant, walking between centrifuges with Ri Jong Ho, vice department director of the Munitions Industry Department, on March 3rd. Kang Kyong Ho, deputy director of the Nuclear Weapons Institute, is seen accompanying Kim. [Yonhap News]  

Analysis suggests that North Korea is expanding its nuclear weapon production capabilities by equipping its Yongbyon nuclear complex with new nuclear facilities.

The U.S. daily Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported on the 10th (local time), citing an analysis from the United Kingdom’s Verification, Research, Training and Information Centre (VERTIC), that North Korea's new uranium enrichment facility, once fully operational, could increase its annual uranium enrichment capacity by 75%.

The new nuclear facility in Yongbyon mentioned by VERTIC is the site personally overseen by North Korean leader Kim Jong Un on March 3rd.

Although North Korea did not disclose the specific location or production capacity of the plant visited by Kim Jong Un, VERTIC, based on satellite imagery and existing centrifuge performance data, estimated that over 9,000 centrifuges capable of producing approximately 160 kg of highly enriched uranium annually are installed there.

Given that North Korea's current annual highly enriched uranium production capacity is estimated at 215 kg, it is conceivable that its capacity could increase by up to 75% once the new facility is fully operational.

One interpretation for North Korea's expansion of its uranium enrichment capacity is to prepare for the demand of nuclear-powered submarines currently under development.

VERTIC also estimated that North Korea already possesses approximately 2,100 kg of highly enriched uranium.

This amount is roughly one-tenth of the stockpile of military-grade highly enriched uranium held by the United Kingdom or France.

Grant Christopher, who authored VERTIC's report, explained, "North Korea appears to have already secured all the necessary material for a medium-sized nuclear arsenal, and it is assessed that they are currently increasing the quantity. There are no signs that North Korea will cease these efforts anytime soon."

Previously, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) also estimated in its annual report that North Korea's nuclear warhead inventory had been revised upwards to 60, and that it possesses fissile material sufficient to produce at least 90 more.

The WSJ assessed that the circumstances, such as the public release of Kim Jong Un's site inspection of the new nuclear facility, indicate North Korea's firm resolve to increase its nuclear weapons stockpile despite international pressure.

Given that the new nuclear facility is located in the heart of Yongbyon, North Korea's main nuclear complex, and that state media has showcased rows of centrifuges, it is analyzed that North Korea may be attempting to outwardly display its intention to augment its nuclear arsenal.

Shin Jae-woo, an analyst at the Austrian non-governmental research organization Open Nuclear Network (ONN) and co-author of the VERTIC report, commented, "It is noteworthy that the new nuclear facility is located not in a deep mountain area out of external view, but in the very center of Yongbyon. It was intended to be discovered."

Based on these developments, the WSJ concluded that the likelihood of North Korea returning to negotiations with the United States and others, who have proposed sanctions relief in exchange for nuclear disarmament, has significantly decreased.

At the Hanoi North Korea-U.S. summit in 2019, North Korea requested sanctions relief in exchange for dismantling the Yongbyon nuclear facility, but the negotiations broke down when then-U.S. President Donald Trump demanded a comprehensive agreement including five additional sites beyond Yongbyon.