New cars parked at a dealership in California, USA [AP=Yonhap News file photo]

New car sales in the United States are expected to decline by more than 2 million units annually over the next decade due to shifts in demographics and consumer behavior, according to a report by consulting firm Bain & Company, as cited by CNBC on the 28th (local time).

The Bain analysis, cited by CNBC, projects that U.S. new car sales will drop by over 2 million units by 2040, driven by slowing population growth, high vehicle prices, and the rise of alternative transportation methods.

Bain notes that while the U.S. has historically offset declining birth rates with immigrant inflows, restrictive immigration policies are expected to persist over the next 15 years.

Mark Gottfredson, a partner at Bain, told CNBC, "The automotive industry is no longer a growth industry; it is a declining industry," adding that "it is facing a decline at a time when technology is disrupting everything."

Rising vehicle prices and the emergence of more affordable alternatives were also identified as key factors contributing to the decline of the automotive industry.

According to S&P Global Mobility, the share of 18-34-year-olds in new vehicle registrations in the U.S. fell from 12% in the first quarter of 2021 to less than 10% by mid-2025.

This indicates that rising vehicle costs are diminishing the purchasing power of the younger generation.

Analysis from automotive market research firm Telemetry shows that monthly installment payments for new cars in the U.S. have risen by 30% over the past four years, with one in five new cars now requiring monthly payments exceeding $1,000.

Sam Fiorani, vice president of global vehicle forecasting at AutoForecast Solutions, explained, "Younger generations are more likely to use services like Uber to get around," adding that "while there are still young people who enjoy driving and want new cars, fewer can afford them."

Bain further analyzed that if robotaxis become widely available and more affordable within the next 15 years, the proportion of the population with driver's licenses could drop by 2 to 3 percentage points, and the number of vehicles per driver could decrease from 1.2 to 1.1.

This suggests that one or two out of every ten U.S. households could reduce their vehicle ownership by one car in the future.

The increased longevity of vehicles is also a factor driving down new car purchases.

According to the Bain report, the annual vehicle scrappage rate in the U.S. fell from approximately 6% in 2000 to 5% in 2025. Bain predicts this rate could decline to 4.4% by 2040.

Gottfredson added, "Competition in the U.S. auto market will only intensify," noting that "there are too many automakers and brands competing for the same consumers, and the market will inevitably have to consolidate."