An image visualizing the power struggle over party leadership and nomination rights for the next general election between the pro-Lee Jae-myung faction and the pro-Roh/pro-Moon factions ahead of the Democratic Party's national convention. [Photo=Hanmi Ilbo Graphic]

The Democratic Party's national convention has transcended the scope of a simple party leader election. While it appears on the surface to be a debate over a centrist expansion strategy versus the alienation of core supporters, it is, at its core, a power struggle between the old guard (pro-Roh/pro-Moon) and the new pro-Lee faction over control of the party and nomination rights for the next general election.

The upcoming convention on August 17 to elect the next party leader is considered a variable that will determine the power to nominate candidates for the 2028 general election and the initiative in the race for future power. The landscape of the leadership race is also tightening around the tension between Rep. Jung Chung-rae’s bid for consecutive terms and the containment efforts led by figures like Kim Min-seok and Song Young-gil.

Inside and outside the party, there is analysis that this convention carries the nature of a struggle for dominance between the pro-Roh/pro-Moon camp and the pro-Lee mainstream forces.

Within this configuration, the convention serves as a critical turning point for the Lee Jae-myung regime.

If the pro-Lee faction seizes party leadership, the Democratic Party will be reorganized into a "one-team Lee Jae-myung system" unified with the Blue House and the ruling party. Conversely, if Jung Chung-rae or forces leaning toward the pro-Roh/pro-Moon camp survive, an independent power axis separate from Lee Jae-myung will be formed within the party.

In that it could signal a failure to consolidate control over the ruling party early in the administration, this convention is escalating into a fateful showdown that will determine whether Lee Jae-myung faces an early lame-duck period.

Surface-level debate on strategy, fundamental struggle for nomination rights

The superficial issue at hand is the "Lee Jae-myung style" of centrist expansion.

Author Rhyu Si-min recently criticized Lee Jae-myung's stance on inclusion and integration, as well as his centrist-conservative expansion, stating, "I wonder if the President was too overconfident." He remarked that those who protected and supported Lee Jae-myung wanted an "extension"—expanding the outreach on top of the existing foundation—whereas Lee seems to be attempting a "reconstruction" that demolishes the existing structure to build a new one.

Rhyu Si-min's analogy is more than just a play on words.

An "extension" is a method of adding moderate voters while maintaining the existing pro-Roh/pro-Moon base and the core democratic-reformist supporters. On the other hand, "reconstruction" views the existing support base and the old guard within the party as an outdated structure, aiming to reorganize the Democratic Party centered entirely around the pro-Lee faction.

What Rhyu Si-min took issue with is not the centrist expansion itself, but the fact that this expansion is being conducted in a way that treats the existing support base as something to be "demolished."

Rhyu also likened the trend within the Democratic Party's public discourse of attacking the old guard, such as the pro-Roh/pro-Moon factions, to an autoimmune disease attacking "normal cells."

While this appears to be a policy debate within the Democratic Party, it actually leads to the question of who will inherit the party's legitimacy and who will hold the next nomination rights.

Ultimately, the true battlefield of this debate is power, not policy.

The next leadership will have decisive influence over nominations for the 2028 general election and the reorganization of order within the party. Depending on who holds the party leadership, the Democratic Party’s pool of candidates, factional survival, and the succession structure of power will all shift.

Therefore, this convention is not a forum for debating "core support versus outreach," but rather a war for nomination rights for the next general election.

Jung Chung-rae’s survival as a crack in the pro-Lee monolithic system

In this dynamic, Jung Chung-rae is not merely a candidate for party leadership. He is a symbolic anchor around which pro-Roh/pro-Moon sentiment, hardline Democratic Party supporters, and internal forces uncomfortable with the monolithic pro-Lee system can coalesce. If Jung Chung-rae survives, an independent power axis will emerge within the Democratic Party that operates separately from the pro-Lee logic that "there can only be one captain."

This is why the pro-Lee camp finds Jung Chung-rae burdensome. If Jung re-emerges as party leader or secures a significant stake, Lee Jae-myung will enter his second year in office without having achieved full control over his own party.

This is not merely an internal party inconvenience. It creates a scenario where presidential power and ruling party power are separated from the very beginning of the administration.

In Korean politics, a president’s lame-duck period does not begin solely with attacks from the opposition party. When the ruling party begins to calculate life after the president, a lame-duck period begins from within. Therefore, Jung Chung-rae’s survival could serve as a signal of a crack in the pro-Lee monolithic system.

Conversely, if the pro-Lee faction pushes Jung aside and seizes control of the party, the message becomes clear: The Democratic Party will be reconstructed around the pro-Lee faction, and nominations for the next general election will fall under the influence of the Lee Jae-myung system. Even if the pro-Roh/pro-Moon old guard remains symbolically, they will be pushed out of actual power. This is why this national convention is desperate for the pro-Lee camp.

Is the luncheon with Moon Jae-in an act of integration or a gesture of "respectful pressure"?

The invitation for former President Moon Jae-in to a luncheon at the Blue House must also be viewed within the context of this power struggle. The Blue House announced that Lee Jae-myung and former President Moon Jae-in would have a luncheon at the Blue House at 11:30 AM on July 1st. Chief Blue House Spokesperson Kang Yu-jung announced this schedule during a briefing on June 25th.

The official justification is the courtesy owed to a former president and the integration of the ruling party. However, the timing is highly political. The invitation comes at a time when Rhyu Si-min’s "reconstruction theory" is directly criticizing the pro-Lee reorganization of the party, and Jung Chung-rae’s moves are being read as a signal for the pro-Roh/pro-Moon factions to rally.

This luncheon could be a card to appease the pro-Roh/pro-Moon faction. Simultaneously, it could be a card used to exert pressure.

If former President Moon attends, Lee Jae-myung gets the optics of "Moon Jae-in also agrees with integration." If he does not attend, a frame can be created that the pro-Moon faction is deepening the division. In a sense, the invitation itself functions in a way that narrows the options for Moon Jae-in and the pro-Moon camp.

Therefore, the luncheon with Moon Jae-in can be interpreted as a gesture of reconciliation, but also as "respectful pressure" aimed at binding the pro-Moon camp within the Blue House’s "one-team" frame. If Rhyu Si-min’s bitter comments were a warning from the pro-Roh/pro-Moon side, the invitation of Moon Jae-in is a political scene intended to draw that warning into the Blue House and neutralize it.

The 800 trillion won Honam announcement: A card to secure the "party heart"?

The announcement of an 800 trillion won investment in semiconductors in the Honam region is also raising controversy in the same vein. According to reference materials from the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy, the government unveiled a plan to build four semiconductor fabs and an ecosystem of partner companies and human resources in the Honam region, worth a total of 800 trillion won, establishing it as a "second production hub" following the capital region.

Purely from an industrial policy perspective, there is the justification of balanced national development and the expansion of the semiconductor supply chain. However, from a political perspective, it is a scene where a massive industrial blueprint has been tossed into Honam, the heart of the Democratic Party. Intertwined with the timing of the upcoming national convention, this announcement is being read as a political card aimed at securing the "party heart" of Honam.

The problem is the certainty of the announcement. While the government’s announcement was delivered as if the "800 trillion won, 4 fabs" plan were already confirmed, the companies’ explanations include conditional expressions.

Samsung Electronics Chairman Lee Jae-yong stated that Gwangju is "being planned as a candidate site" where infrastructure such as power, water, and human resources, as well as incentives, are expected. SK Group Chairman Chey Tae-won also explained that they would build factories in locations that meet all necessary conditions. The Samsung Electronics Semiconductor Newsroom also used the phrase "planning it as a candidate site" for Gwangju.

For this reason, it is difficult to avoid the suspicion that the 800 trillion won Honam announcement is an industrial vision and a political blueprint simultaneously. Although the scale announced by the government is large, actual investment can only be realized if conditions such as power, water, land, human resources, residential environment, profitability, and global demand are met.

If this were truly industrial policy, these conditions would be explained calmly. However, in the political landscape ahead of the national convention, this announcement is being interpreted as a card for the pro-Lee system to preemptively win over Honam's party sentiment.

The People Power Party is also attacking this point. Floor Leader Jung Kwang-jae argued regarding the Honam semiconductor investment that "it cannot escape criticism that it is a decision based on political engineering," and took issue with the fact that the investment site was suddenly announced before official confirmation, and that the site happens to be Gwangju and Jeonnam, the main support base for the Democratic Party.

When the pro-Roh/pro-Moon camp speaks of the "identity of the Democratic Party," the pro-Lee faction is speaking of "Honam development and industrial reorganization."

If the pro-Roh/pro-Moon camp puts the political legacies of Roh Moo-hyun and Moon Jae-in at the forefront, the pro-Lee faction is presenting the 800 trillion won blueprint to Honam to send a message that the future power of the Democratic Party belongs to them.

The issue of a political safety net after leaving office

At a deeper level lies the issue of Lee Jae-myung’s own post-power future. Analysis suggests that if the next party leadership is handed over to the pro-Roh/pro-Moon or Jung Chung-rae camp, Lee Jae-myung could see not only a weakening of his grip on the party in the latter half of his administration but also a collapse of his political safety net after leaving office.

In Korean politics, a president’s security is not guaranteed solely by the power of the Blue House while in office. The ruling party leadership, nomination rights, the pool of candidates for the next general election, and a protective network within the party after retirement must all work together to manage judicial and political risks after power.

A president who controls the ruling party can maintain influence even in the latter half of their term, but a president with a separate axis of power within the ruling party is inevitably forced to face the pressure of an early lame-duck period.

In this respect, this national convention is a fight the pro-Lee faction cannot afford to lose.

Handing over party power does not just mean losing one leadership position. It means that the nomination rights for the next general election, internal personnel reshuffling, and even the political safety net after retirement could all be shaken. This is why the pro-Lee faction has no choice but to stake everything on containing Jung Chung-rae.

A national convention that has become a fateful showdown

Ultimately, this Democratic Party convention is not just about who becomes the party leader. It is a battle between whether Lee Jae-myung will fully seize control of the Democratic Party to prevent an early lame-duck, or whether Jung Chung-rae and the pro-Roh/pro-Moon forces will establish an independent power axis to shake the monolithic pro-Lee system.

Rhyu Si-min’s bitter comments were the opening salvo of that fight. The invitation for the Moon Jae-in luncheon is a political maneuver to appease and bind the pro-Moon faction. The 800 trillion won Honam semiconductor announcement is a massive message directed at Honam’s party sentiment. These three events are not isolated scenes, but different faces of the power struggle surrounding the Democratic Party’s national convention.

For Lee Jae-myung, this national convention is a defense against an early lame-duck period. For Jung Chung-rae, it is a fight for political survival. For the pro-Roh/pro-Moon camp, it is a fight to recover dominance within the Democratic Party. Therefore, neither side can back down. The Democratic Party’s national convention has already gone beyond an internal party event and has become a fateful showdown that will decide the fate of the Lee Jae-myung system.