The Coupang report has emerged as a variable that increases the policy discount rate applied to Korean assets, moving beyond a single-company issue. [Photo: Hanmi Ilbo Graphics]The market next week may prioritize foreign investors, exchange rates, and policy risks over semiconductor earnings.

The core of this week’s Money Insight is the clash between earnings, supply-demand dynamics, and policy risks. While the semiconductor euphoria has not completely faded, the market no longer allows strong earnings alone to mask all uncertainties.

Last week, Money Insight posed the following question:

“Can strong earnings overcome poor supply-demand conditions?”

This week, the market’s answer leaned toward the negative. While solid earnings support long-term trends, poor supply-demand dynamics moved prices first in the short-term market.

Even though Micron’s earnings confirmed the AI memory cycle, Korean-related assets fluctuated significantly as foreign selling, retail leverage, profit-taking in semiconductors, and the weakening won converged.

This week’s market trend could be termed: ‘The discount rate arrived before the earnings.’

The market has not given up on corporate earnings forecasts. The issue is the discount rate applied to those earnings. Even if interest rates fall, if exchange rates are volatile, foreigners are selling, and policy risks increase, the discount rate for Korean stocks rises.

There is now a range where even the same level of profit must be valued at a lower price.

This has been compounded by the U.S. House of Representatives report on Coupang.

The report has expanded beyond the controversy over Coupang’s personal data leak to encompass claims of the Korean government discriminating against U.S. firms, digital trade barriers, and the weaponization of regulatory agencies. When aligned with a Section 301 petition to the USTR, this is no longer just a corporate matter; it becomes a framework for trade disputes.

Given that Korean semiconductors are deeply integrated into the U.S. AI supply chain, the possibility of the U.S. immediately resorting to full-scale retaliation is limited.

However, what the market fears is not necessarily just immediate tariffs. Sophisticated pressures—such as Section 301 investigations, reconsiderations of Section 232 tariff conditions, delays in equipment and technology licensing, and tighter scrutiny of end-users in China—can also increase the future costs for companies.

This week’s question is as follows:

“Is the Coupang report a Coupang-specific issue, or a problem regarding the discount rate of the Korean stock market?”

The answer is closer to the latter. The Coupang report is not just about one company’s stock price; it is a U.S.-style challenge to the entire Korean regulatory environment.

If this issue leads to Section 301, Section 232, and digital trade agreement compliance checks, the Korean stock market will have no choice but to price in risk premiums well before any actual sanctions are imposed.

In one sentence:

“Semiconductors are still alive, but the discount rate applied to Korean assets has risen.”

There are five checkpoints for next week:

First, we must confirm whether the foreign selling of spot stocks has ceased.

Second, we must watch whether the dollar-won exchange rate continues to weaken around the 1,550 mark or returns to below the 1,530 level.

Third, we must check whether the outstanding balance of margin loans and capital flows into single-stock leveraged ETFs are retreating.

Fourth, we must monitor whether the U.S. House report spreads into further actions by the White House, the USTR, or Congress.

Fifth, we must see if earnings estimates for Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix are revised upward enough to overcome supply-demand instability.

※ This document is an analytical summary for reference regarding market trends and does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any specific financial product.