President Lee Jae-myung speaks with reporters on Air Force One en route to Washington D.C. for a South Korea-U.S. summit, following his departure from Haneda Airport in Tokyo on the 24th (local time). Yonhap News 

Difficulties were predicted from the outset. The focus is strengthening on the outlook that the cross-strait issue (China-Taiwan) will be the biggest variable in the upcoming summit, as President Lee Jae-myung stated during an in-flight press conference the day before the South Korea-U.S. summit that "there is truth to the demands for flexibility" regarding the Taiwan issue.

While conflicts surrounding agricultural product liberalization and investment conditions remain, if these issues are not resolved, it will be difficult to achieve results on other agenda items.

President Lee met with reporters aboard the presidential plane as he departed from Haneda Airport in Japan for Washington D.C. on the 24th, stating, "I will discuss everything that needs to be discussed."

Regarding the U.S. demand for eased import regulations on agricultural and livestock products in relation to the tariff agreement reached last month, he said, "We cannot easily accept demands to change things unilaterally." However, he simultaneously acknowledged, "There are demands emerging from various U.S. government departments to change them."

This contradicts the explanation initially given by the negotiating team, which stated, "We defended our agriculture."

The investment negotiation issue is similar.

President Trump said after the negotiations last month, "90% of Korea's investment benefits go to the U.S.," but the government at the time denied or downplayed this.

However, President Lee's remarks during the press conference this time, "We have already reached a major agreement, and the U.S. President announced it himself," showed an attitude that effectively acknowledged it. While agricultural products and investment issues are negotiable by their nature, they are already acting as factors that shake the credibility of the agreement.

However, the real obstacle to this summit is undoubtedly the cross-strait issue.

President Lee stated, "We don't usually discuss difficult matters in foreign policy and security dialogues, but it is true that there are demands for flexibility." This is an official acknowledgment that the U.S. is demanding South Korea's involvement in the Taiwan issue.

However, he offered only the principled response that "we cannot easily agree." Instead, he mentioned the "future strategic transformation" of U.S. Forces Korea, but this is considered separate from the U.S.'s strategy towards China.

The cross-strait issue encapsulates the structural dilemma of South Korean diplomacy. Economic dependence on China remains significant, while security relies absolutely on the alliance with the U.S. The Taiwan issue is where these two pillars directly collide.

Although President Lee stated, "As a sovereign nation, I will not disappoint the people," this remains a statement of principle, with no concrete response strategy in sight. For this reason, experts point out, "If the Taiwan issue is avoided or only addressed in principle, the overall outcome of the summit could be diminished, regardless of any agreement reached on agricultural products or investment."

There is another variable here: President Trump's negotiation style.

He has a history of using the opponent's political base and legitimacy as leverage to exert pressure in negotiations. In fact, hawkish figures on China close to Trump, such as Gordon Chang, and other conservative American figures are urging the rejection of the summit itself.

If President Lee Jae-myung's legal risks and legitimacy controversies are brought up at the summit, President Trump is highly likely to use them as a negotiating card. This is an uncertain factor that could further rigidify the talks, separate from economic and security agendas.

Ultimately, the prevailing view is that this South Korea-U.S. summit is unlikely to be deemed successful unless the cross-strait issue is resolved. While economic and livelihood agendas are negotiable, the Taiwan issue touches upon the very essence of the alliance. If President Trump were to also bring up legitimacy issues, the summit is likely to leave behind more crises than achievements.

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