The decision on whether to hold an early Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) leadership election, which will determine the political fate of Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, who is facing pressure to resign from opposition forces following successive election defeats, is expected to be made in early September.

Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba. Yonhap News.

According to local media on the 27th, the LDP plans to hold a General Committee meeting on the 29th to discuss a draft report analyzing the causes of the July Upper House election defeat, and then formally adopt it at a joint meeting of House of Representatives and House of Councillors members on the 2nd of next month.

Accordingly, how the general report addresses the responsibilities of the party leadership, including the party president Prime Minister Ishiba, is expected to significantly influence public opinion inside and outside the party regarding the calls for Prime Minister Ishiba's accountability.

Following the Upper House election defeat, calls for an early leadership election arose due to mounting responsibility on Prime Minister Ishiba, but the slush fund scandal that erupted in 2023, primarily involving former Abe faction lawmakers, is also being cited as a major cause of the electoral defeat.

The LDP's Election Management Committee for the Party President held a meeting today and decided to proceed with a procedure to confirm the opinions for or against an early leadership election in early September, after the joint meeting of the House of Representatives and House of Councillors members, according to Kyodo News.

Furthermore, the Election Management Committee decided to adopt a method of submitting written ballots for the opinion confirmation procedure, and to publicize the names of the submitters afterward.

Ichiro Aizawa, chairman of the Election Management Committee, stated, "We will issue a notice for the opinion confirmation procedure on the 2nd when the joint meeting of the House of Representatives and House of Councillors is held, and we will set a date within 5 to 7 days to confirm the opinions," adding, "We will ask the members to submit their written ballots to the party headquarters, and mail will also be accepted for local organizations."

According to Article 6, Paragraph 4 of the LDP Rules (Recall Provision), an early leadership election can be held if a majority, or at least 172 out of a total of 342 individuals including 295 current party lawmakers and 47 representatives of prefectural chapters, vote in favor.

However, this rule has not been applied in practice to hold an early leadership election, and the Election Management Committee has been discussing specific procedures and methods.

Prime Minister Ishiba's current presidential term is until September 2027. If an early leadership election is held, he is eligible to run for the position according to the regulations.

Yonhap News