Guest Columnist. ROTC Class of 40On September 3, 2025, Xi Jinping, Putin, and Kim Jong Un stood side-by-side on the Tiananmen Gate Tower in Beijing. The meeting of the leaders of North Korea, China, and Russia on the stage commemorating the 80th anniversary of China's victory in the Anti-Japanese War, a reunion after 66 years, transcends a mere diplomatic event. It symbolizes the official launch of an "anti-Western alliance" against the U.S.-centric international order and appears to be a move towards military and economic closeness in opposition to ROK-U.S.-Japan cooperation.

1. Is Victory Day the "Overture to Military Hegemony" or a Signal of Communist Collapse?

Experts analyze this meeting as an inevitable outcome driven by the convergence of each nation's interests. Amidst the U.S.-China hegemonic competition, China desperately needs allies to break through the U.S. containment. Russia, facing international isolation due to the Ukraine war, urgently needs China's economic and diplomatic support. North Korea, enduring decades of sanctions, likely seeks to secure the backing of these two major patrons to simultaneously stabilize its regime and escape international isolation. Kim Jong Un's attendance at Victory Day may be a precursor to "U.S.-North Korea talks."

The alliance of the three dictatorial regimes of North Korea, China, and Russia may be a "convenience alliance" based on desperate national interests rather than ideology, and could prove to be a temporary phenomenon. There are even hints of an intention to deflect serious internal problems, such as China's property collapse and economic crisis, and Russia's depletion of national strength due to the protracted war, by focusing on external enemies.

The CCP's Victory Day serves as a stage to maintain and propagate its power, and the lavish event may, in reality, be a means to conceal internal instability. The North Korea-China-Russia alliance can be analyzed as a "signal of impending collapse," revealing systemic fragility and isolation behind a show of force. The somber expressions of the 22 national leaders appearing in the commemorative photo, showcasing their exclusive league, clearly demonstrate their international isolation.

2. How to Interpret President Trump's Victory Day Message?

President Trump characterized the meeting of the three leaders as a direct threat and collusion against the United States. Through his "Truth Social" platform, he sarcastically messaged President Xi Jinping, saying, "Please send my warmest regards to Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong Un while you all plot against the United States of America."

He also referenced Americans who sacrificed to aid China during World War II, adding, "I hope their courage and sacrifice are properly honored," thereby pressuring China by reminding it of its historical contributions. Furthermore, he confidently stated, "China and Russia will never use military force against us," adopting a relaxed stance that does not consider their display of power a genuine threat.

Through social media, President Trump mobilized his base and built a tough image against hostile forces. Simultaneously, in official interviews, he projected confidence in his ability to negotiate and control as a "strong leader." This can be interpreted as a message acknowledging the North Korea-China-Russia alliance as a serious threat while simultaneously conveying his capability to manage this issue.

3. Interpreting Geopolitical Upheaval and Our Response Stance

We must consider and be vigilant about the North Korea-China-Russia Victory Day meeting as a direct and significant threat to the security of the Korean Peninsula. We should define their alliance not as an ideological blood pact of the past Cold War, but as a "strategic partnership" united under the common goal of "anti-U.S." for their respective self-interests. Our primary response should be to build "peace through strength" by reinforcing the firm ROK-U.S. alliance and strengthening ROK-U.S.-Japan security cooperation, while expressing concern about security instability. The recent closeness between North Korea, China, and Russia clearly calls for us to exercise caution and prepare countermeasures.

First, we must guard against further provocations from North Korea rather than focusing solely on resolving the nuclear issue.

Will China and Russia more actively utilize North Korea as a strategic buffer zone to prevent the expansion of U.S. influence, making North Korea's denuclearization even more remote? Or will President Trump succeed in "U.S.-North Korea talks" to persuade Kim Jong Un to side with the U.S., leading to the stationing of U.S. troops in Pyongyang and the dismantling of North Korea's nuclear weapons?

If Trump's unconventional strategy fails, the possibility of further North Korean provocations will be higher than ever before, and military tension in Northeast Asia will escalate. In such a situation, the most critical concerns are national division and complacency. The attendance of National Assembly Speaker Woo Won-sik and lawmaker Park Jie-won at the Victory Day event will be perceived domestically as division and conflict, and externally as diplomatic division. If this is seen as a breach of Lee Jae-myung's promise in the U.S. not to pursue "anmi-gyeongjung" (peace with the U.S., reliance on China), it appears to have much to lose and is therefore deeply concerning.

Second, diplomatic and security strategies must be redesigned in line with macro-level shifts.

There can be no neutrality in military confrontation. The Korean Peninsula has now become the front line of a new Cold War structure: "ROK-U.S.-Japan" versus "North Korea-China-Russia," extending beyond U.S.-China competition. This signifies that our security is no longer confined to the framework of the Korean Peninsula but is directly linked to global dynamics. Our diplomatic and security strategies must also be carefully considered and redesigned to align with these geopolitical changes.

Third, we must abandon vague optimism and pursue peace through a balance of power.

Historically, when China formed unified dynasties or consolidated into one entity, the Korean Peninsula engaged in wars with dynasties steeped in Sinocentrism. We must strengthen our alliance with countries sharing liberal democratic values, centered around the steadfast ROK-U.S. alliance, and secure overwhelming deterrence.

In this era of upheaval where North Korea, China, and Russia are moving for their own purposes, we desperately need bold strategic wisdom to turn crises into opportunities and thorough military preparedness.