Gambling, not negotiation. The future of our people cannot be staked on a roulette wheel. Han-Mi-Il Report Graphics

“The U.S. has demanded a $350 billion cash contribution from South Korea.”

This statement, which has spread through domestic media, is consumed as fact, but a fact check reveals that it lacks a solid foundation. 

U.S. Secretary of Commerce Lutnick stated clearly in a CNBC interview regarding Japan’s $550 billion investment that “the funding is up to them (Japan) to figure out.” 

This means the U.S. does not interfere with the method of financing, leaving it to Japan to source the funds—whether through cash, loans, or guarantees.

A key concept here is the "capital call." 

Through an agreement with the U.S., Japan makes a promise to invest a total amount, but the actual payment is made in stages whenever a project is executed. When the U.S. proposes a specific industrial project, Japan provides the necessary funds at that moment. The method of payment is determined by Japan. 

Ultimately, it is Japan's responsibility to determine how to raise the money, while the U.S. holds the authority to select and execute the projects.

Logically, the same structure must apply to South Korea. It is difficult to believe that while the U.S. tells Japan, “figure out the funding yourself,” it would exclusively force “cash contributions” upon South Korea. 

Nevertheless, such claims have been propagated by the South Korean media. Reports from Reuters also cited articles originating from Korean media, and the sources were mostly vague references to “officials in Korea.” The U.S. has never officially confirmed a demand for cash contributions from South Korea, and the South Korean government has also drawn a line, stating, “We were not asked for cash contributions alone.”

Even more noteworthy is the attitude of the government. 

The Han-Mi-Il Report previously broke the story on the contents of the Memorandum of Understanding for the U.S.-Japan trade agreement via a Hudson Institute report. However, in his 100-day press conference, President Lee Jae-myung responded, “I am not aware of such details.” 

If true, this implies a grave issue within the reporting system regarding foreign and trade affairs; if he was aware but feigned ignorance, the response is insufficient to convince the public. Either way, it is clear that the statement undermined trust in state administration.

The subsequent reports on a “demand for an unlimited currency swap” follow the same context. 

Ambiguous wording from South Korean government officials was amplified and reproduced by the media, while the U.S. response effectively remained at the level of “What is this?” However, domestic media reported on it extensively, and even scholars and insiders poured out speculations based on these media reports, fueling public opinion.

Ultimately, the picture that South Korean society currently believes in is a narrative where “the U.S. is making exorbitant demands, and the Lee Jae-myung administration is struggling through negotiations.” 

However, when looked at with calm common sense, this is far from the truth. From the U.S. perspective, what matters is not whether it is ‘cash or guarantees,’ but the fact that the investment itself enters U.S. soil to create industries and jobs. The core is the political achievement of securing the investment, rather than the profit and loss.

Then let us examine why this tactic of confusion is uniquely effective in South Korea. 

The first interpretation is that it is a ploy to buy time. The tariffs imposed by President Trump are currently under review at the Supreme Court, and the view within the U.S. legal community is that there is a high possibility of him losing. A ruling could come later this year, or as late as the first half of next year. If South Korea signs the agreement before then, the agreement remains valid even if Trump loses in court. It is Trump who is impatient. One could calculate that if the current government holds its ground, it could secure better terms than Japan.

However, we must not overlook the fact that even if Trump loses at the Supreme Court, he still has many cards to play against South Korea. Betting on this is more like gambling than negotiation.

The second factor is domestic public opinion management. 

There is a political motive to cultivate anti-American sentiment to dissipate the strength of the anti-Lee Jae-myung factions. In fact, some public opinion is already shifting. However, this is a double-edged sword. If anti-American sentiment grows excessively at home, it becomes a burden on the Trump administration as well. Furthermore, if the negotiation process is fully exposed, the Lee Jae-myung administration could suffer a fatal blow. Perhaps the U.S. is simply waiting for the right moment.

In its attempt to maintain power, the Lee Jae-myung administration is proceeding with highly controversial measures, such as special investigations, the creation of special judicial panels, and the seizure of opposition party member lists. However, it is unlikely that the U.S. is unaware of this administration’s schemes. Manipulating the media and distorting public opinion through political trickery may work temporarily, but in the international community, the truth eventually comes to light.

What is needed now is not hysteria, but common sense. 

The controversy over “demands for cash contributions” and “unlimited swaps” is a political frame, not a fact. If the public allows itself to be swayed by this, it threatens not only the national interest but the very foundation of our democracy. It is time to regain our focus.

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