Shin Dong-chun, Chairman of the Federation for National Unity and Doctor of Public Administration  1. Why Do Wars Occur?

First, wars arise when nations clash in their pursuit of survival and power. For instance, Athens' expansion in the 5th century BC posed a security threat to Sparta, leading to the Peloponnesian War. 

Wars can also occur when national ambitions to seize territorial resources combine with economic crises, as exemplified by World War II initiated by Nazi Germany and the recent Russia-Ukraine war. 

Second, wars stem from nationalism and historical religious grievances. The ongoing Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the ethnic, racial, and religious wars in the Balkans during the 1990s are prime examples. 

Third, conflict and clashes arise from ideological and systemic differences. The Korean War and the Vietnam War are examples of wars between liberal democratic, capitalist nations and totalitarian communist regimes. 

Fourth, wars can occur when the balance of power between nations or blocs is disrupted. The Napoleonic Wars and World Wars I and II fall into this category.     

2. The Thucydides Trap

This concept in international relations, based on the Peloponnesian War by the Greek historian Thucydides, posits that the likelihood of war increases when a rising new power threatens the status of an established great power. The Thucydides Trap is frequently cited today to explain the relationship between the United States (the established hegemon) and China (the rising power). 

According to Professor Allison, who developed this concept, China's economic and military rise threatens the US's position, warning that the possibility of war within the 21st century is "much higher than acknowledged." Disputes in the South China Sea, the Taiwan issue, and trade wars are identified as signs of this trap. 

After the collapse of the Soviet empire in 1990, the US seemed to establish itself as the sole superpower. However, following Deng Xiaoping's reform and opening-up policy, and with Western countries including the US admitting China into the WTO in 2001, a seismic shift occurred in international trade and politics. Granting developing country status to state-controlled trade by the Chinese Communist Party was an unprecedented benefit. The rosy assumption that China's rise would lead to democratization as its citizens' incomes grew proved to be a miscalculation as China's ascent and challenge to the US materialized. 

3. Confrontation Between the Free World and Totalitarian/Communist Blocs in the New Cold War Era 

The 21st century is witnessing a global confrontation between these two blocs. This struggle has continued for over a century since the Bolshevik communist revolution succeeded in Russia in 1917 and the Communist Party of China was founded in 1921. 

After World War II, the US made significant concessions to the Soviet Union, a fellow victor nation, but was ultimately exploited by the Soviet Union's ambition for global communist revolution. Eastern Europe became Soviet satellite states, and wars such as the Korean War and the Vietnam War erupted as part of the communist expansion strategy. 

During the Cold War, the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe primarily engaged in internal trade (e.g., COMECON), meaning they were not as economically intertwined as in the new Cold War. The Soviet Union attempted reforms and opening up due to the failure of its planned economy and the arms race with the US, but this triggered nationalism and separatism, leading to its dissolution. 

The Rise of China and the Challenge from Totalitarian Blocs 

With China's rise to G2 status, totalitarian states have consolidated and challenged the free world. China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, and Venezuela are interdependent for energy and resources such as oil and gas. 

China claimed sovereignty over 90% of the South China Sea, but the Permanent Court of Arbitration ruled that it had no historical or legal basis. Through the Belt and Road Initiative, China has expanded its trade routes and sought to increase its political influence worldwide, aiming to achieve this through "unrestricted warfare." The first and second island chains are considered defensive lines to prevent US naval access and benchmarks for expanding its own blue-water navy. However, China faces numerous internal challenges, including unsold real estate, youth unemployment, and Xi Jinping's precarious leadership. 

The UN has lost its authority, with Russia, which invaded Ukraine, and China, pursuing expansionism, holding permanent seats on the Security Council. 

Response from the Free World, Including the US

In the new Cold War era, economies between the free world and totalitarian blocs are intricately intertwined. Economic sanctions are imposed on Russia and Iran, which pose threats or instigate wars (e.g., resumption of sanctions, snapbacks). The US employs a strategy linking economics and security by imposing tariffs, levying lower tariffs on allies and higher tariffs on unfriendly nations and adversaries. 

The US has achieved energy self-sufficiency and is reforming its military to be the strongest, adopting flexible deployment strategies tailored to situations, including rapid mobility. The recent revival of a "War Department" and the convening of a global commanders' conference are intended to innovate leadership and enhance combat readiness. 

The US has mandated NATO members to spend over 5% of their GDP on defense. Recently, Trump expressed the stance that Ukraine can reclaim territories lost to Russia and pledged arms support. 

Furthermore, the US aims to establish peace in the Middle East by eliminating threats from Iran and its proxies like Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis. With the commitment of 32 NATO countries to defend Ukraine, Russia's economy is expected to collapse, its dictatorial regime under Putin to crumble, and it to fall into decline. All these efforts by the US are ultimately aimed at encircling and subduing China. 

4. How to Prevent War?

Modern warfare is total warfare, requiring the maximization of economic power, military strength, and soft power. Preparing for a US-China war requires a comprehensive approach beyond mere military confrontation. Here, paradoxically, we will examine the strategies of the free world based on the wisdom of Chinese classics such as Sun Tzu's Art of War and the Analects. 

Is self-defense feasible? Even the strongest nation, the US, cannot defend itself alone and forms alliances in various forms, including collective security. In the new Cold War era, allies share security and economic interests. 

The free world engages in security cooperation through NATO, QUAD, AUKUS, 5 EYES, and Indo-Pacific partnerships. The totalitarian bloc, centered around China and Russia, sees countries like BRICS and the SCO consolidating based on shared interests. 

Appeasement policy refers to a diplomatic strategy of maintaining peace by conceding territory or demands to aggressive and expansionist states or forces. British Prime Minister Chamberlain, due to the trauma of World War I and a lack of armament, chose an appeasement policy by accepting Hitler's demands and signing the Munich Agreement. However, Hitler immediately occupied Czechoslovakia afterward, leading to World War II. In 1994, the US, UK, and Russia signed the Budapest Memorandum guaranteeing Ukraine's denuclearization and territorial integrity in exchange for its nuclear disarmament, but it became a mere piece of paper after Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014. 

South Korea provided large-scale aid to North Korea through its Sunshine Policy, but North Korea ultimately developed nuclear weapons, posing a significant threat to South Korea's security. "If you want peace, prepare for war" (有備無患). 

"The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting."

The US is striving to reduce its reliance on China for critical resources such as semiconductors and rare earths. Through the CHIPS Act and the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), it aims to secure technological superiority over China by 2025. It employs a strategy of applying economic pressure (tariffs, export controls) without direct conflict, pursuing economic decoupling and supply chain reorganization. 

"Know yourself and know your enemy, and you will never be defeated." (知彼知己 百戰不殆)

The US analyzes China's internal divisions (Xinjiang, Hong Kong issues) and military weaknesses (aircraft carrier vulnerability) through its intelligence agencies. It seeks to isolate China through trade and military agreements with Taiwan and the Philippines. The US is expanding joint exercises with its allies and enhancing its capabilities in cyber, space, and electronic warfare. Israel has the ability to immediately replace incompetent commanders in battle, a practice known as "chutzpah." This is a key to maintaining powerful military forces for a small nation, achieving both combat efficiency and social innovation. 

"Sufficient food, sufficient troops, and the confidence of the people." (足食足兵民信之)

Confucius, in the Analects, highlights three pillars of state management: abundant economy, strong military, and the people's trust, prioritizing trust above all else. He warns that even if the economy and military collapse, without trust, the state will fall ("If the people lack faith, the state cannot stand" - 無信不立). 

The US is building its spiritual and moral foundation on MAGA within the Republican conservative movement and Turning Point USA led by Charlie Kirk, with Christian faith, family, freedom, and patriotism at its core. 

The ROK-US alliance, based on the "know your enemy" principle and a trust-centered national security strategy, is the bedrock of freedom and prosperity. Recent realignments of US Forces Korea and upgrades to the combined command system are responses to China's threats (East Sea/South China Sea). Expanding trilateral ROK-US-Japan training (Freedom Edge) helps identify China's missile and naval weaknesses. Through nuclear deterrence sharing (extended deterrence), it prepares for simultaneous threats from North Korea and China. To "win without fighting," it promotes trade diversification and technological self-reliance in areas like semiconductors and batteries. The US has decided to maintain 28,000 USFK troops in the 2026 National Defense Authorization Act and recently established an attack drone unit. 

In conclusion, the wisdom of classical texts on warfare inspires modern strategies that view US-China conflict as "total warfare." The US and the free world are preparing for war through alliances and technology. The Republic of Korea must ensure its survival through the ROK-US alliance, based on "trust" between the two nations, and between the government and its people. 

Shin Dong-chun, Chairman of the Federation for National Unity and Doctor of Public Administration