Former Economy, Trade and Industry Minister Sanae Takaichi and Minister of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries Shinjirō Koizumi. Yonhap News.

Former Economy, Trade and Industry Minister Sanae Takaichi and Minister of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries Shinjirō Koizumi have advanced to the run-off round in the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) presidential election, which effectively selects Japan's next prime minister.

In the first round of the 29th LDP presidential election held on the afternoon of the 4th at the party headquarters in Tokyo, Takaichi garnered 183 votes and Koizumi secured 164 votes, placing them first and second, respectively.

However, as no candidate secured an absolute majority (295 votes) among the five contenders, the top two will proceed to a run-off vote. The run-off election will commence shortly.

Koizumi and Takaichi had been considered the frontrunners in this election. Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi, who was evaluated as a "dark horse," was eliminated after receiving only 134 votes.

The first round results were a combination of votes from LDP lawmakers and votes from party members (Japanese citizens paying party dues) and supporters (members of political organizations supporting the LDP) that concluded the previous day.

Each of the 295 LDP lawmakers cast one vote, and the party member votes were converted and reflected as equivalent to the lawmaker votes, totaling 295 votes. However, there were 294 valid votes from lawmakers.

Takaichi received 64 votes from lawmakers and 119 votes from party members, while Koizumi obtained 80 votes from lawmakers and 84 votes from party members.

The run-off election will be decided by a combined total of 295 votes from LDP lawmakers and 47 votes from the 47 prefectures. Compared to the first round, the proportion of votes from national lawmakers significantly increases.

Local media have speculated that former Prime Minister Taro Aso, who leads the "Aso faction," the last remaining faction within the party, and former Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, the former head of the Kishida faction, could exert influence in the run-off election, potentially consolidating votes for a specific candidate.

In this regard, Kyodo News reported that Aso has conveyed to those around him his intention to support the candidate who received the most party member votes in the first round. Consequently, Aso is expected to back Takaichi.

Conversely, Kishida is anticipated to support Koizumi.

The Aso faction and the former Kishida faction consist of 43 and approximately 40 lawmakers, respectively.

Separately, analyses suggest that the voting intentions of lawmakers who supported the eliminated candidates in the first round—such as Chief Cabinet Secretary Hayashi, former Economy, Trade and Industry Minister Takayuki Kobayashi, and former LDP Secretary-General Toshimitsu Motegi—could be a significant variable influencing the outcome.

The new LDP president is widely expected to become the next prime minister, succeeding Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, through a prime ministerial designation election in the Diet scheduled around the 15th.

Although the current Japanese Diet is characterized by a situation where the ruling party lacks a majority, the opposition parties are divided, making it highly probable that the leader of the largest party, the LDP, will win the prime ministerial designation election.

Yonhap News