Sanae Takaichi, President of Japan's Liberal Democratic Party. AFP=Yonhap News. 

Sanae Takaichi, former Minister of Economic Security known for her hardline conservative stance, was elected on the 4th as the first female president of Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP).

She is expected to become the first female Prime Minister in Japanese history following a parliamentary nomination election, which is anticipated to take place in about ten days.

In the runoff of the 29th presidential election held at the LDP headquarters in Tokyo on the 4th, Takaichi received 185 votes, defeating Minister of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries Shinjiro Koizumi, who garnered 156 votes, by a larger-than-expected margin of 29 votes.

In the first round of voting, in which five candidates participated, she ranked first with 183 votes. Koizumi reached the runoff in second place with 164 votes.

Although the newly elected president Takaichi had finished first in the first round of last September's presidential election only to be overtaken by Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba in the runoff, she maintained her momentum from the first round through to the runoff this time.

Prior to the election, Japanese media generally analyzed that Koizumi was leading the race, with Takaichi being pursued by Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi; however, the actual result was essentially an easy victory for Takaichi.

In the first round, the 295 LDP parliamentarians each cast one vote, and the votes from party members were converted into 295 votes—matching the number of parliamentary votes—to determine the total.

The runoff was decided by combining the 295 votes from LDP lawmakers and 47 votes from the 47 prefectures. However, the total number of valid parliamentary votes was 294 in both the first round and the runoff.

Analysts believe that Takaichi received the most support from party members and also performed well in the parliamentary vote—previously considered her weak point—by consolidating support from conservative lawmakers.

In the runoff, Takaichi received 149 parliamentary votes, while Koizumi received 145.

Furthermore, factional influence appears to have played a role in the runoff. Specifically, it is speculated that former Prime Minister Taro Aso, who leads the only remaining faction within the party, acted as a "kingmaker" by supporting Takaichi.

While former Prime Minister Aso reportedly received "love calls" from both Takaichi and Koizumi, it is said that he expressed his intention to support the candidate who finished first among party members.

Consequently, it appears that a significant number of the 43 members of the Aso faction, as well as lawmakers who supported Takayuki Kobayashi, former Minister of Economic Security, and Toshimitsu Motegi, former LDP Secretary-General—who placed 4th and 5th in the first round—voted for Takaichi in the runoff.

Former Minister Kobayashi shares Takaichi’s strong conservative leanings, and former Secretary-General Motegi has maintained a close relationship with former Prime Minister Aso through frequent meetings.

Newly elected LDP President Sanae Takaichi shakes hands with Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba after the presidential election on the 4th.

Takaichi is expected to succeed Ishiba as Prime Minister following the parliamentary nomination election likely to be held around the 15th. Although the Japanese Diet currently has an opposition-controlled lower house, the opposition is fragmented, making it highly likely that the candidate from the LDP, the largest party, will win the nomination election.

Having captured the party leadership on her third attempt, Takaichi made efforts to soften her conservative image during this election. This was a move following analysis that her emphasis on hardline conservative tendencies cost her lawmaker votes in last year's election.

However, as someone often referred to as the "female Abe" for having expressed her intention to carry on the policies of the late former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, she is expected to steer state affairs with consideration for the conservative base that supported her.

In particular, there are concerns about the potential impact on South Korea-Japan relations, which had been in a phase of cooperation, given that Takaichi has regularly visited Yasukuni Shrine, where Class-A war criminals from the Pacific War are enshrined.

Her previous assertion that the rank of the Japanese government representative sent to the "Takeshima Day" event hosted by Shimane Prefecture should be upgraded from a vice-ministerial level to a cabinet minister level is also a point of concern.

However, during this election campaign, she stated, "It is very important to cooperate with South Korea to respond" to the approaches of North Korea, China, and Russia. Regarding her visits to Yasukuni Shrine, she also showed a cautious attitude, saying she would "make a judgment appropriately."

Takaichi is from Nara Prefecture in the western part of Honshu. She was first elected to the House of Representatives in 1993, representing a district in Nara, and is now serving her 10th term. She is also a rare example of a non-hereditary politician among prominent LDP figures.

Hanmiilbo·Yonhap News