Hudson Institute 'North Korea Strategy' Seminar. Source: Hudson Institute YouTube channel.  

U.S. experts have analyzed that North Korea now possesses significantly higher bargaining power against the United States and South Korea, bolstered by its solidified ties with Russia and China and advancements in its nuclear capabilities.

As attention turns to the potential for a meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, experts have simultaneously warned against harboring vague optimism regarding the resumption of U.S.-North Korea dialogue.

At a seminar titled "What Is North Korea's Strategy?" held at the Hudson Institute in Washington, D.C., on the 17th (local time), Bruce Klingner, a senior research fellow at the Heritage Foundation, noted that the war in Ukraine has led Russia to rely on North Korean military supplies, adding, "Kim Jong Un likely believes that North Korea is currently in the strongest position it has ever been in history."

He explained, "North Korea is receiving food, fuel, funding, and military technology from Russia, and is also restoring its relationship with China, its largest trading partner."

He further analyzed, "Kim Jong Un likely feels no need to chase after the U.S. to seek benefits as he did in 2018 or 2019, because he is receiving more benefits from Russia with fewer conditions than he could obtain from the U.S. or South Korea."

Klingner stated, "Kim Jong Un must feel that he is in the most advantageous position right now. He is in no rush to meet with the U.S., and he likely perceives that President Trump will be more eager for a summit to achieve a diplomatic victory, such as a Nobel Peace Prize."

Markus Garlauskas, director of the Indo-Pacific Security Initiative at the Atlantic Council, also remarked, "We must acknowledge the fact that North Korea is in its strongest position in decades. We must be wary of irrational optimism, as the current North Korea is far more powerful than it was during the 2019 Hanoi summit."

He emphasized the need to pay attention to the personal alliance between Kim, Russian President Vladimir Putin, and Chinese President Xi Jinping, stating, "We must adjust our strategy to address the reality that North Korea, China, and Russia are more closely aligned than ever before."

Lee Tae-rim, a visiting scholar at the Institute for Korean Studies at George Washington University, stated, "The core of any future U.S.-North Korea dialogue rests on two questions: 'How urgently does the U.S. view the North Korean issue?' and 'Is the U.S. prepared to shift from denuclearization to a more realistic approach, such as arms control, given North Korea's strong determination to retain its nuclear weapons?'"

Professor Lee explained, "The possibility of North Korean denuclearization has grown more remote as China and Russia expand economic cooperation with the North. Now, the focus must shift to creating an environment where North Korea does not feel the need to use its nuclear weapons."

Chun In-bum, former commander of the Republic of Korea Army Special Warfare Command, emphasized, "We must learn how to coexist with a nuclear-armed North Korea. To make a counterpart like Kim Jong Un take negotiations seriously, a strong military readiness posture is essential."

Some also argued that if the U.S.-Russia summit previously hinted at by President Trump and President Putin takes place, the North Korean issue must be included on the agenda.

Professor Lee noted that Russia is making efforts to maintain a positive relationship with President Trump, adding, "If the U.S. requests Russia's support for the resumption of U.S.-North Korea dialogue, there is a very high possibility that Russia will respond positively."

It was also pointed out that while unity with allies is crucial for the U.S. to counter external threats like North Korea, President Trump's tariff policies are undermining these relationships.

Klingner stated, "U.S. tariff policies are affecting relations with allies. Countries that already have Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) with the U.S., such as South Korea, are wondering, 'What is the U.S. doing? Why are they punishing us economically?'"

He further noted, "As allies face demands for U.S. investment, the imposition of punitive tariffs, and requests for additional security burdens, they no longer view the U.S. as a reliable economic and security partner."

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