Sanae Takaichi, President of Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party (right), and Hirofumi Yoshimura, leader of the second largest opposition party, Nippon Ishin no Kai, hold up an agreement for the establishment of a coalition government on the 20th. Yonhap News.

With the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and the second largest opposition party, Nippon Ishin no Kai (Japan Innovation Party), officially agreeing to establish a coalition government on the 20th, LDP President Sanae Takaichi is set to be inaugurated as Japan's first female prime minister on the 21st.

President Takaichi and Nippon Ishin no Kai leader Hirofumi Yoshimura met in Tokyo on the same day and signed an agreement for the establishment of a coalition government.

The LDP had been pursuing the establishment of a new coalition government after the centrist conservative Komeito, with whom they had a cooperative relationship for 26 years since 1999, withdrew from the coalition on the 10th. In just ten days, they have joined hands with the hardline conservative Nippon Ishin no Kai.

Consequently, the Takaichi cabinet is expected to pursue policies with a strong conservative stance.

According to Kyodo News and NHK, President Takaichi stated in a meeting with Representative Yoshimura, "I am grateful for your serious policy deliberations as parties that share a common view of the nation," and added, "Starting from today, we aim to strengthen Japan's economy."

Representative Yoshimura stated, "We share the same goal of improving Japan by promoting administrative reform."

The agreement includes a passage stating that both parties have decided to cooperate fully, recognizing the paramount importance of creating a stable government to promote the "revival of Japan" amidst severe domestic and international circumstances.

It also includes provisions for pursuing structural reforms, including constitutional amendments, security, social security, and the governance system.

With this agreement, President Takaichi is expected to be elected as prime minister, succeeding Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, after the prime ministerial nomination election to be held on the 21st.

Members of Nippon Ishin no Kai are planning to vote for President Takaichi in the prime ministerial nomination election.

The prime ministerial nomination election is conducted separately by the House of Representatives (lower house) and the House of Councillors (upper house). If the results differ, the results of the House of Representatives vote take precedence.

If a candidate secures an absolute majority in the first round of voting in the House of Representatives, their election is virtually confirmed. If no candidate achieves an absolute majority, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff election. In a runoff election, securing an absolute majority is not a prerequisite; the candidate who simply receives more votes is elected prime minister.

The LDP and Nippon Ishin no Kai have 196 and 35 seats in the House of Representatives, respectively, totaling 231 seats when combined, which is two seats short of the majority of 233 seats. If the Speaker, who is from the LDP, and minor conservative opposition parties cast votes for President Takaichi, the outcome could be decided in the first round of voting.

Furthermore, discussions for opposition party candidate unification have also ceased, making President Takaichi's election as prime minister certain.

However, Nippon Ishin no Kai has decided to participate in the coalition in the form of "external cooperation" (without joining the cabinet), despite President Takaichi's proposal. This decision is reportedly made considering the lack of administrative experience among their party members and the early stage of cooperation with the LDP.

The Nihon Keizai Shimbun reported, "Nippon Ishin no Kai is likely to consider joining the cabinet after accumulating achievements in policy areas," and added, "The LDP is exploring the possibility of appointing Takashi Endo, Chairman of Nippon Ishin no Kai's Diet Affairs Committee, as a special advisor to the prime minister."

Nippon Ishin no Kai demanded the designation of Osaka Prefecture as a "sub-capital" for emergency preparedness, a reduction in social insurance premiums, and a 10% reduction in the number of Diet members as conditions for their participation in the coalition.

The LDP has agreed to accept most of the policies proposed by Nippon Ishin no Kai as conditions for coalition participation. Regarding the abolition of corporate and organizational sponsorships, which remains a point of disagreement between the two parties, they have decided to continue discussions and reach a conclusion by September 2027, the end of President Takaichi's term.

Yonhap News