Dakaiichi Sanae, President of Japan's LDP. Reuters Yonhap News. 

Sanae Dakaiichi, President of Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), will be inaugurated as the first female Prime Minister of Japan on the 21st.

It is highly likely that President Dakaiichi will be elected as the new Prime Minister, succeeding Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, through a prime ministerial nomination election to be held in the extraordinary Diet session on the same day.

Having secured party leadership by winning the LDP presidential election on the 4th, she faced a crisis when the Komeito party, which had maintained a coalition relationship with the LDP for 26 years, withdrew from the coalition. However, she reached an agreement with the second opposition party, the Japan Innovation Party, the previous day to establish a new coalition.

The prime ministerial nomination election will be conducted separately by the House of Representatives and the House of Councillors. In case of different results, the vote of the House of Representatives will take precedence.

If a candidate obtains an absolute majority in the first round of voting in the House of Representatives, they are effectively elected. If no candidate secures an absolute majority, the top two candidates will proceed to a runoff vote. In the runoff vote, securing an absolute majority is not a prerequisite; the candidate who receives simply more votes will be elected Prime Minister.

The LDP and the Japan Innovation Party have 196 and 35 seats in the House of Representatives, respectively. This is 2 seats short of the 233 seats needed for an absolute majority.

However, about four independent lawmakers are considering voting for President Dakaiichi, making it possible for the outcome to be decided in the first round of voting, according to Kyodo News.

If President Dakaiichi's election as Prime Minister is confirmed, she will become the 104th Prime Minister of Japan, following Ito Hirobumi, who served as the first Prime Minister after the cabinet system was introduced in 1885.

President Dakaiichi will officially launch the new cabinet after the investiture ceremony to receive the letter of appointment from the Emperor and the cabinet appointment ceremony.

Minoru Kihara, former Minister of Defense, is expected to be appointed as Chief Cabinet Secretary, the role of government spokesperson, and Toshimitsu Motegi, former Secretary-General of the LDP, as Minister of Foreign Affairs to handle diplomatic policy.

President Dakaiichi also plans to appoint ministers such as Shinjiro Koizumi, Minister of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, and Yoshimasa Hayashi, Chief Cabinet Secretary, who also ran in the LDP presidential election. There are considerations for appointing Minister Koizumi as Minister of Defense and Minister Hayashi as Minister of Internal Affairs and Communications.

Kyodo News reported that "President Dakaiichi is emphasizing the personnel policy of 'active participation of all and full mobilization of all generations,'" and stated that "there is a view that young people and women will be actively appointed as ministers."

It was also added that whether lawmakers involved in the LDP's 'slush fund scandal' will be appointed as ministers is a point of focus.

The LDP had given the position of Minister of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism to its existing coalition partner, Komeito. The Japan Innovation Party has decided not to join the cabinet even if they participate in the coalition.

This form of 'external cooperation' means that the responsibility for governing the country is relatively light, and the cooperative relationship is bound to be weak.

Nihon Keizai Shimbun speculated that if issues not agreed upon by both parties emerge and the differences in their views widen, the Japan Innovation Party may not cooperate with the government or the LDP.

With the LDP parting ways with the centrist-conservative Komeito and joining hands with the hardline-conservative Japan Innovation Party, analyses suggest that the policies pursued by the Dakaiichi cabinet will become distinctly conservative.

After taking office, President Dakaiichi is expected to focus on establishing measures to combat high inflation, and also to engage in diplomatic activities such as a summit with U.S. President Donald Trump and attending the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Gyeongju.

Yonhap News