"Japan's United Ishin Party as Accelerator" ... Sanae Takaichi Cabinet Accelerates Rightward Policy Shift

Analysis suggests that the rightward policy shift of Sanae Takaichi's cabinet in Japan is proceeding at an unusually rapid pace, significantly influenced by the Liberal Democratic Party's alliance with the Ishin Party as a coalition partner.

According to local media reports on the 23rd, on the day of her inauguration, the 21st, Prime Minister Takaichi, at the first cabinet meeting, instructed the preparation of comprehensive economic measures, presenting three policy pillars: addressing high inflation, strengthening the economy through crisis management and growth investment, and enhancing defense and diplomatic capabilities.

The Sanae Takaichi Cabinet [AFP=Yonhap News]

The Yomiuri Shimbun reported that such policy directives being issued at a cabinet meeting on the day of inauguration is unusual.

Following these directives, heads of each ministry also presented specific policy directions in their inauguration ceremonies or press conferences the following day.

For instance, the new Defense Minister, Shinsuke Kishi, stated, "I have received the directives," and expressed the need to review the revision of the three key security documents.

The three key security documents refer to the "National Security Strategy," which outlines foreign and security policy guidelines; the "National Defense Strategy," detailing the role of the Self-Defense Forces and the direction of defense capability development; and the "Defense Force Development Plan," which outlines concrete defense equipment procurement policies.

In December 2022, during Fumio Kishida's administration, the Japanese government revised these three security documents, pushing for a major shift in security policy, including the acquisition of "counterstrike capabilities" to attack enemy missile bases.

Satsuki Katayama, the new Finance Minister who will lead the Ministry of Finance as the first woman in that role, emphasized on the same day, "We must not leave behind an ungrowing Japan for the future," and stressed, "We will pursue responsible, proactive fiscal policies."

Regarding rice prices, Norikazu Suzuki, the Minister of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, stated, "It should be determined by the market," hinting at a possible shift from the production increase policies pursued by the Ishiba cabinet.

In relation to this, local media, based on a draft of the speech, reported that Prime Minister Takaichi plans to announce her intention to pursue the revision of the three key security documents by the end of next year and advance the target date for achieving the defense spending goal of 2% of GDP by 2027 by about two years in her policy speech at the extraordinary Diet session expected on the 24th.

Furthermore, the draft speech is expected to include plans for the establishment of a "National Conference" composed of lawmakers from both ruling and opposition parties and experts to reform the social security system, and a "Japan Growth Strategy Council" to drive economic growth led by advanced industries.

Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and Nippon Ishin no Kai leader Hirofumi Yoshimura [Kyodo Yonhap News file photo. Reproduction and DB prohibited.]

Prime Minister Takaichi is emphasizing speed, stating to reporters at her official residence the previous day, "I will work hard at an accelerated pace."

The Yomiuri Shimbun analyzed that if Komeito, which withdrew after participating in coalition governments for 26 years, acted as the "brake" for the administration, then the Ishin Party serves as the "accelerator," with Prime Minister Takaichi hoping to speed up reforms by leveraging the Japan Innovation Party with which she formed a coalition.

Komeito, a centrist party, played a checking role by expressing dissenting opinions during the revision of the three key security documents that allowed for counterstrike capabilities in 2022 and during the revision of the "Guiding Principles for the Transfer of Defense Equipment" which regulates arms export restrictions.

However, the Ishin Party is known to be right-wing, no less so than Prime Minister Takaichi, and has attached deadlines to many of its policy demands among the 12 policy areas outlined in the coalition agreement document.

For example, they demanded the submission of a bill to reduce the number of House of Representatives members by 10% within the current extraordinary Diet session, set a year-end deadline for the reform of basic deductions, and specified the establishment of a bipartisan consultative body for the designation of a "sub-capital" during the extraordinary Diet session.

While the Ishin Party agreed to form the coalition, it has formed a loose coalition without participating in the cabinet, leading to speculation that it has a relatively higher possibility of withdrawal compared to typical coalition governments.

Consequently, Prime Minister Takaichi needs to realize the agreed-upon goals within the year to strengthen the foundation of her coalition government.

However, pushing for policies too aggressively could also lead to the weakening of the Takaichi administration's foundation.

In particular, the issue of the number of Diet members could become a trigger for conflict within the ruling party during the subsequent process of electoral district adjustments, as it involves conflicting interests among lawmakers, according to some observations. Yonhap News