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US inflation expectations below forecast... tariffs had little impact
  • NNP=Hong Seong-Gu
  • October 25, 2025 at 1:36 PM
기사수정
  • September Consumer Price Index up 3.0% year-on-year
  • Reuters: "Fed Open to Further Rate Cuts"



Data released by the U.S. government on the 24th (local time) showed that consumer price inflation in September came in lower than expected, opening the door for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) and suggesting that tariffs are not burdening the average consumer's economy.


The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.3% last month, down from a 0.4% increase in August. Economists had expected a 0.4% rise.


Compared to a year ago, consumer prices rose 3.0%, slightly below the forecast of 3.1%.


Core inflation, excluding food and energy prices, rose 0.2%, below the 0.3% forecast. Over the past 12 months, core inflation has risen 3.0%.


Food prices, which surged in August, slowed down in September. The food price index rose 0.3% month-over-month, down from a 0.6% increase in August. Food prices rose 2.7% year-over-year. Prices for dining out rose only 0.1%, a slowdown from the 0.3% increase in August. Prices for dining out rose 3.7% year-over-year.


Energy prices were the main driver of inflation for the month, rising 1.5% in September and 2.8% year-over-year. Gasoline prices rose 4.1% in September, but fell 0.5% year-over-year.


New car prices rose 0.2% in September, a slight increase of 0.8% year-over-year. Used car prices fell 0.4% after rising for the past two months. Used car prices rose 5.1% year-over-year.


Apparel prices rose 0.7% in September, but fell 0.1% year-over-year.


Core services prices, excluding energy services, rose 0.2%. The annual increase is currently 3.5%. Shelter costs, including rent and owners' equivalent rent, rose 0.2%, a 3.6% increase year-over-year.


Prices for home appliances rose 0.8%, an increase of 1.3% year-over-year. Prices for major home appliances rose 0.4% month-over-month, but fell 0.6% year-over-year. Prices for home furnishings rose 0.2%, an increase of 3.0% year-over-year.


Prices for computers and smart home assistants rose 0.2%, but fell 0.7% year-over-year. Smartphone prices fell 2.2%, marking the second consecutive month of decline. Smartphone prices fell 14.9% year-over-year.


Television prices fell 1.1%, and on an annual basis, they fell 6.0%.


Reuters reported on the 24th (Friday) that traders are betting on the possibility of the Federal Reserve implementing quarter-percentage-point interest rate cuts at its remaining three FOMC meetings this year.


"It may sound strange, but the Fed will be content with inflation staying around 3% for the next few months," said Olu Sonola, head of U.S. economic research at Fitch Ratings.


Futures contracts linked to the Fed's benchmark interest rate reflect a nearly 100% probability that the Fed will lower its target range to 3.75%-4.00% at its meeting next week, with a 95% chance of an additional cut in December.


Following the lower-than-expected inflation rate in September, traders are now pricing in about a 55% chance of further Fed rate cuts at the January meeting, up from less than 50% previously.


U.S. NNP = Chief Editor Hong Seong-gu / Special Contribution to this paper NNP info@newsandpost.com


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