North Korea's Missile General Bureau successfully conducted a test of an important weapon system on the 22nd, Yonhap News reported on the 23rd, citing the Korean Central News Agency. The agency stated that "two hypersonic vehicles launched from the Ryongpo District of Pyongyang in a northeast direction struck their targets at Kosaebong Peak in Arang County, North Hamgyong Province." The test launch was observed by Pak Jong Chon, vice chairman of the Party Central Military Commission, Kim Jong Sik, first vice director of the Munitions Industry Department, and Jang Chang Ha, director of the Missile General Bureau. Yonhap News. 

Amid North Korea's announcement of a recent test launch of a new hypersonic missile, U.S. defense officials have assessed that North Korea has not yet completed the development of its hypersonic missile capabilities.

A senior U.S. defense official stated during an online briefing on the 22nd (local time), "We do not believe there is any evidence that North Korea has perfected hypersonic technology."

He added, "North Korea has claimed to have demonstrated hypersonic technology in previous missile tests, but we believe there is no substantive evidence of their success. They are trying, but they have not yet reached that point."

North Korea launched a short-range ballistic missile from Pyongyang eastward on the 22nd and announced the next day that it was a "hypersonic vehicle."

When asked if North Korea had acquired the re-entry technology for intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), the defense official responded, "North Korea is making progress, but they have not yet demonstrated full missile performance across all phases of flight, including re-entry."

However, he emphasized that the next ICBM or space launch vehicle (SLV) tests by North Korea should be closely watched, recalling Russia's agreement to provide space launch technology in exchange for North Korean troop deployment.

In response to a question about whether the "Indirect Firepower Protection Capability" (IFPC), an air defense system recently deployed to U.S. Forces Korea, is designed to counter threats from both North Korea and China, the defense official stated, "The IFPC can be seen as specifically designed for North Korea," while also warning that China could clearly pose a military threat to South Korea.

Regarding the cooperation between North Korea, China, and Russia, he assessed, "Their national interests do not align, and their worldviews do not align." He added, "From that perspective, their relationship is transactional."

He further explained, "There are too many obstacles that limit the intensity of the willingness to cooperate among the three countries for them to truly integrate or synchronize further," and "There is historical animosity and distrust between them."

He also mentioned that North Korean soldiers dispatched to assist Russia initially struggled due to their lack of modern warfare experience but adapted to the modern battlefield over time, improving their tactics and operations with "unmanned vehicles, surveillance and reconnaissance capabilities, and long-range precision weapons."

However, he added that the combat capabilities of the North Korean military are still not at a superior level and they continue to incur significant casualties.

The hypersonic missile 'Hwasong-11ma' displayed at a North Korean military parade. Yonhap News. 

Regarding North Korea's proposal of "abandoning denuclearization" as a condition for resuming North Korea-U.S. dialogue, he assessed, "For North Korea, relinquishing its nuclear capabilities is a nonstarter."

He diagnosed, "North Korea believes it has established itself as a nuclear-capable state, and North Korea now wants the world to accept this and re-engage with North Korea as a nuclear-armed country."

When asked about the possibility of North Korea conducting a seventh nuclear test, he replied, "We really don't know if North Korea will conduct another nuclear test, or when."

Referring to North Korea's restoration of its Punggye-ri nuclear test site to a usable state, he stated, "From a technical perspective, we are not aware of any specific constraints that would prevent North Korea from conducting another nuclear test."

He mentioned that North Korea has signaled its intention to conduct nuclear tests multiple times in recent years but has not done so yet, suggesting that North Korea might be considering the "political environment," including the "very strong response from the international community" that resuming nuclear tests would entail.

Nevertheless, he added, "I would not be surprised if North Korea conducted one tomorrow."

He explained, "That's not insight based on specific knowledge we possess. It's simply that since Kim Jong Un took power, he has acted boldly and taken considerable risks, so it's not entirely impossible for him to conduct another nuclear test."

He analyzed that, considering North Korea's foreign policy statements to date, North Korea might feel the need to test "more tactical nuclear weapons" to be mounted on short-range missiles, and that a seventh nuclear test might involve testing a smaller, lower-yield nuclear weapon compared to the previous six tests.

Yonhap News