The cracks that began in Seoul's public sentiment after the real estate measures symbolize 'cracks in the government's trust' with the fissure on the exterior wall of the Yongsan Presidential Office. The red line shows the trend of negative evaluations (49%), and the blue line shows the trend of positive evaluations (47.2%). Graphic by Hankyoreh.

Real estate policies are leading to a widening rift in public sentiment.

In a public opinion poll targeting Seoul, negative evaluations of the President's state affairs performance have, for the first time, surpassed positive evaluations. This is analyzed as distrust in policy failures shaking the support base of the Yongsan administration.

According to a public opinion poll conducted by the Korea Society Opinion Institute (KSOI) at the request of CBS Nocut News from October 25-26, among 812 men and women aged 18 and above residing in Seoul, 49.0% responded that "President Lee Jae-myung is not doing a good job in state affairs." Those who responded "doing a good job" accounted for 47.2%, marking the first time negative evaluations have exceeded positive ones.

Seoul is a political barometer where the ruling and opposition parties are in a close contest, and this result is interpreted as a signal to gauge the divisions in public sentiment in the Seoul metropolitan area.

Following the issue of First Deputy Secretary Kim Hyun-ji, which began with controversy over a close associate, and compounded by backlash against the 'October 15 Real Estate Measures,' Seoul's public sentiment appears to be experiencing a series of shocks. If the Kim Hyun-ji risk shook the trust within the administration, the real estate downturn has provoked distrust in people's livelihoods. Although the two incidents are different in nature, they have collectively drawn criticism for 'Yongsan-centric, closed-door state affairs management.' Distrust in public opinion is shifting from personnel issues to policy issues, eroding the overall trust in the administration.

This survey is also noteworthy because it was conducted by KSOI, which is generally considered to have a stronger progressive leaning. While some in political circles evaluate that "KSOI surveys tend to overrepresent supporters of the Democratic Party," the fact that negative evaluations still surpassed positive ones is considered an unusual change.

Party support rates showed a similar trend. The Democratic Party of Korea garnered 38.0%, and the People Power Party received 36.7%, recording a close race within the margin of error. This was followed by the Reform Party at 3.8%, the Progressive Party at 1.3%, and the Cho Kuk Innovation Party at 1.2%.

Political circles diagnosed that "with accumulated government fatigue and declining policy effectiveness, the departure of centrist voters is beginning in earnest."

Real estate policy is considered a key variable in this shift in public sentiment. 54.6% of respondents answered that the government's October 15 real estate measures "do not help normalize the real estate market," while only 35.0% responded that they "do help." Critics argue that the measures, focused on tax and loan easing to boost transaction volume, were not sufficiently felt by actual homebuyers.

Experts believe that the limited perceived effect of these measures on low- and middle-income households stems from their focus on short-term transaction activation. One real estate expert diagnosed that "policy trust has not been restored because the approach focused on short-term remedies, such as tax and loan easing, has not led to alleviating the burden on actual homebuyers." It is analyzed that the gap between the perceived impact on the general public and policy trust has widened as the government has focused on 'transaction recovery' instead of 'market normalization.'

Public opinion in Seoul leads the direction of national sentiment. The results of this survey show that real estate policy failures are not just a matter of livelihood but are extending into a crisis of trust in the administration. Assessments from within and outside the political sphere suggest that it will be difficult to reverse Seoul's public sentiment without a change in policy direction.

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