Zaporizhzhia after bombardment. AP=Yonhap News. 

The United States is intensifying pressure on Ukraine to accept a draft '28-point peace plan' to end the war with Russia. The upcoming Thanksgiving holiday (November 27th) has been tentatively set as a deadline.

However, the draft peace plan includes provisions that Ukraine considers to be "red lines," such as relinquishing territory in eastern Donbas and limiting troop numbers, suggesting there are significant variables before a diplomatic solution can be reached.

President Zelensky in front of the White House. AP=Yonhap News. 

◇ US Pressures Ukraine: "Let's Agree by Thanksgiving and Finalize Next Month"

Ukrainian government officials told the Financial Times (FT) on the 20th (local time) that the Trump administration is pressuring them to accept the peace plan.

According to reports, the US side is pressuring Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to sign the draft before Thanksgiving next week.

Ukraine indicates that this timeline is set by the US to conclude a peace agreement in Moscow by the end of this month and finalize all processes by early December.

However, Ukraine believes that the likelihood of this timeline being met is low, given that the proposals under discussion contain unacceptable terms.

Ukraine, which received the proposal on the 20th, is currently preparing a counter-proposal to present to the US, the FT added.

The British newspaper The Times reported the analysis of Ukrainian political commentator Volodymyr Fesenko, suggesting that Ukraine could face US pressure to accept a peace proposal by December 25th, before Christmas.

However, the commentator also analyzed that Russia is unlikely to expect Ukraine to agree to the current draft.

Ukrainian soldiers. AP=Yonhap News. 

◇ Draft Peace Plan: "If Russia Stops Attacks, Rejoin G8 and Lift Sanctions"

According to the draft peace plan reported by foreign media such as AP and AFP, a significant portion of Russia's demands regarding Ukraine's security appear to have been accepted.

Under this plan, Ukraine's military personnel, currently at 880,000, would be limited to 600,000.

Ukraine's long-held aspiration to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) would be blocked, and further expansion of NATO would be restricted.

AP analyzed that these provisions are a significant gain for Russia, which views NATO as a threat.

The draft specifies that Ukraine would receive "reliable security guarantees," but specific details are not provided. NATO forces would also not be stationed in Ukraine.

Furthermore, Russia would secure the entire eastern Donbas region (Luhansk and Donetsk), and the US would recognize these areas, along with Crimea, as de facto Russian territory.

The Donetsk region, from which Ukraine has withdrawn, would be designated as a demilitarized zone, and Russian forces would not enter it.

A principle is also proposed where the southern Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions, whose annexation Russia claims, would be frozen along the front lines.

Given that Ukraine still controls 14% of the Donbas region and its constitution restricts territorial cession, the possibility of acceptance is low.

The draft also includes a provision for European fighter jets to be deployed in Poland, a neighboring country to Ukraine.

Additionally, Russia would rejoin the Group of Eight (G8) and resume economic exchange with the world through the lifting of various sanctions.

However, Russia would pledge not to attack Ukraine in the future and would contribute $100 billion (approximately 145 trillion won) of frozen Russian assets to Ukraine's reconstruction.

In the event of a renewed Russian invasion of Ukraine, sanctions would be automatically restored, and a military response would be triggered.

The draft also includes a provision for the establishment of a 'Peace Committee' led by President Trump, similar to the peace committee he formed to end the Gaza war.

Putin and Trump meet in Alaska. AP=Yonhap News. 

◇ 'Peace Plan' Supported by Trump; Europe Questions Russian Concessions

White House spokesperson Karine Jean-Pierre stated that Middle East Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Secretary of State Marco Rubio have been working on the draft peace plan for the past month, and that President Trump also supports this peace plan.

"This is a good plan for both Russia and Ukraine, and we believe it can be accepted by both sides. We are working to make it happen," Jean-Pierre said.

President Zelensky acknowledged meeting with a US delegation regarding the peace plan and expressed his expectation to discuss the plan with President Trump "within days." He stated, "Any agreement must bring about a dignified peace that respects our independence and sovereignty."

Regarding the draft, EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell said, "For any plan to work, Ukraine and Europe must be involved." He added, "The draft is too favorable to Moscow. We have heard no concessions from the Russian side."

Yonhap News