Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi concluded her schedule in South Africa without engaging with Chinese Premier Li Qiang during the Group of 20 (G20) summit.

Chinese President Xi Jinping (left) and Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi. Xinhua/EPA=Yonhap News. 

This has led to projections in Japan that the prolonged confrontation between the two countries, which began with Takaichi's remarks implying intervention in the event of a Taiwan contingency on November 7, is unavoidable.

According to local media on November 24, Prime Minister Takaichi told reporters before departing for home on November 23 (local time) after concluding her G20 schedule that she had no contact with Premier Li. She emphasized, "We are open to various dialogues with China. We do not do things like closing doors."

Japanese media had been closely watching for any interaction between Prime Minister Takaichi and Premier Li during the G20 summit, as such a dialogue could have served as an opportunity to ease tensions.

However, the Chinese side had previously indicated no intention of engaging, stating that Premier Li's meeting with Prime Minister Takaichi was not scheduled and demanding that Prime Minister Takaichi retract her remarks.

Nevertheless, Prime Minister Takaichi has refused to retract her statement, which implied the possibility of exercising collective self-defense in the event of a Taiwan contingency.

In this regard, the Yomiuri Shimbun reported, "The lack of contact between the two prime ministers has created a sense of stagnation in resolving the situation," and "With the failure to realize dialogue to resolve the issue, a prolonged confrontation between China and Japan has become unavoidable."

A Ministry of Foreign Affairs official stated, "In the worst-case scenario, confrontation could continue for several years."

The Asahi Shimbun also reported, "The lack of communication sought by the Japanese side has made a prolonged confrontation between the two countries an inescapable situation."

Furthermore, even after the controversial remarks, support for Prime Minister Takaichi's cabinet remains high, indicating no significant political burden at present.

According to a telephone survey conducted by the Yomiuri Shimbun from November 21-23 with 1,054 respondents nationwide, 72% supported the Takaichi cabinet, a level similar to the 71% recorded in October.

Respondents positively evaluated Prime Minister Takaichi's summit meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump last month and her proactive fiscal policy.

A survey by the Mainichi Shimbun of 1,985 people on November 22-23 also showed a support rate of 65% for the Takaichi cabinet, the same as the 65% in October.

Notably, in this survey, only 25% of respondents considered Prime Minister Takaichi's remarks regarding Taiwan to be "problematic," while 50% stated they "do not think there is a problem."

Indeed, some within the administration are reportedly expressing firm stances, such as, "If we hastily retract it, (China) might try to exploit it as a loophole."

However, the economic repercussions of measures such as China's advisory for its citizens to refrain from traveling to Japan are causing concern.

In fact, Takuhide Kiuchi, executive economist at the private research institute Nomura Research Institute, projected that a decrease in Chinese visitors to Japan could lead to a 0.36% decrease in Japan's gross domestic product (GDP). The estimated economic loss is 2.2 trillion yen (approximately 20.8 trillion won).

A more significant issue is that China is escalating its response, such as issuing advisories to refrain from studying abroad and implementing a "Han-Il Ryung" (限日令 - restriction on Japan) similar to the "Han-Han Ryung" (限韓令 - restriction on Korean Wave).

Regarding this, a former minister from the Liberal Democratic Party commented, "It would be disastrous if China stopped exporting rare earths," according to the Asahi Shimbun.

Yonhap News