Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and Chinese President Xi Jinping. SCMP Hong Kong capture

The Donald Trump administration's potential ground invasion of Venezuela is unlikely to prompt China to intervene and support the South American nation, according to a report by the Hong Kong-based South China Morning Post (SCMP) on December 4.

The SCMP, citing analysts, suggested that China will ultimately pursue its own political and economic interests.

Tensions are escalating as the U.S. military, which recently attacked drug smuggling vessels near Venezuela, has deployed 11 warships and 15,000 troops to the Caribbean, closed Venezuelan airspace, and U.S. President Trump hinted at the possibility of a ground invasion on December 2 (local time).

However, the general consensus is that China, like Russia and Iran, will not support Venezuela.

Indeed, Iran, a friendly nation to Venezuela, is reluctant to intervene despite condemning U.S. unilateralism, while Russia has stated it will "closely monitor the situation," and China has only called for restraint from the U.S.

Evan Ellis, a Latin America expert at the U.S. Army War College, noted that "China does not step in to protect partner countries even when they face military pressure from other nations. Instead, it will secure China's interests and political accessibility based on how the situation unfolds."

He added, "If a U.S. attack on Venezuela materializes, China will criticize the U.S. but will not help, while preparing for future scenarios."

The analysis suggests that for China, which has significant investment in Venezuela, economic benefits will take precedence over the safety of President Nicolas Maduro in the event of a U.S. attack.

According to the Center for Global Development Policy at Boston University, China provided $59.2 billion in development funding to Venezuela since 2007. However, due to falling oil prices and the local economic crisis, China is experiencing difficulties in recouping its funds, and many Chinese companies are choosing to withdraw.

China maintained close ties with Venezuela, particularly during the presidency of former President Hugo Chávez, selling 85.8% of its arms to South America to Venezuela between 2010 and 2020. However, due to non-payment and other issues, arms sales have decreased since then, according to the SCMP.

The newspaper added, "Nevertheless, China remains one of Venezuela's few major trading partners, purchasing Venezuelan oil and supplying consumer goods, among other items."

Evan Ellis predicted, "China does not burn bridges. It waits, then reorganizes, and re-enters when the situation calms down. China will quietly maintain its influence until relations with a future Venezuelan government can be rebuilt."

He further pointed out, "If the U.S. exercises military control in Venezuela, its moral authority in the Ukraine war and the South China Sea issue could be weakened."

Paulo Filho, a former Brazilian Army Colonel and analyst at the Brasília Center for Strategic Studies, commented, "If the U.S. acts unilaterally in its backyard (Venezuela), China will assume that the U.S. will tolerate similar actions regarding Taiwan."

U.S. conducting firing drills on a ship in the Caribbean. SCMP Hong Kong capture