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China has omitted the phrase "support for denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula" from a recently released white paper on arms control.

This omission has led to analyses suggesting that China has moved away from its previous stance of "no North Korean nuclear weapons" and has now implicitly accepted North Korea's nuclear armament, according to a report by Hong Kong's South China Morning Post (SCMP) on the 6th.

The State Council of China released a white paper titled "China's Arms Control, Disarmament, and Non-Proliferation in the New Era" on the 27th of last month.

This white paper, an update to the 2005 "Arms Control and Disarmament of China," shows a significant change in its description of "denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula."

The newly released white paper has deleted the expression of "support for denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula," which China has traditionally mentioned.

In the section on "Nuclear Non-Proliferation," the white paper stated: "China upholds an objective and just position on the Korean Peninsula issue, always endeavors for peace, stability, and prosperity on the peninsula, and is committed to the political settlement of the peninsula issue."

It continued, "China urges relevant parties to cease threats and pressure, resume dialogue and negotiations to promote a political settlement, and play a constructive role in realizing long-term stability and peace on the Korean Peninsula."

The 2005 arms control white paper stated in the "Actively Promoting International Arms Control and Disarmament" section: "Supports the claims of relevant countries to establish nuclear-weapon-free zones in the Korean Peninsula, South Asia, Southeast Asia, the Middle East, etc." However, the phrase "denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula" was completely absent from the latest white paper.

In China's "China's National Security in the New Era," released in May of this year, and its 2017 "China's Policy on Asia-Pacific Security Cooperation," there were also references to "denuclearization."

This year's "National Security in the New Era" white paper stated: "Continuously strives for the political settlement of the Korean Peninsula issue, promoting the establishment of a peace regime on the peninsula and the denuclearization process in parallel, and addressing the reasonable concerns of all parties in a balanced manner."

Furthermore, the 2017 Asia-Pacific security policy white paper explicitly stated that China "firmly opposes" North Korea's nuclear development attempts, such as nuclear tests and ballistic missile test launches, and mentioned that "China, together with the international community, will continuously strive to promote denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula and realize long-term stability on the Korean Peninsula and in Northeast Asia."

Experts interpret China's omission of the phrase "denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula" in this white paper as an indication that China has prioritized strategic competition with the United States, thus changing its previous stance of "no North Korean nuclear weapons" and implicitly accepting North Korea as a nuclear-armed state.

Zhao Tong, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, told SCMP that "if China can no longer mention 'denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula,' it is effectively tacitly approving a nuclear-armed North Korea."

Zhao noted that over the past year and a half, China has "clearly distanced itself" from mentioning "denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula" in official statements and policy documents. He added, "Under repeated pressure from North Korea, China appears to have decided to accept North Korea's demand to set aside the nuclear issue, which has repeatedly complicated China-North Korea relations in recent years."

Besides the security white paper in May, another official instance where China mentioned denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula was in March of last year. During a press conference for domestic and foreign media, Wang Yi, Director of the Office of the Central Foreign Affairs Commission of the Communist Party of China (also serving as Foreign Minister), reaffirmed the "dual track approach" (simultaneous pursuit of denuclearization and a peace treaty between North Korea and the US) and the "phased and synchronized principle" as the "prescription" for the Korean Peninsula issue.

However, at the 9th Trilateral Summit between China, Japan, and South Korea held in Seoul two months later, unlike the 8th meeting in 2019 where "denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula" was declared a common goal, there was no mention of a trilateral agreement on North Korea or the North Korean nuclear threat.

In the joint statement following the bilateral meeting between North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and Chinese President Xi Jinping in September, there was also no mention of "denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula." The two countries held four summit meetings in China and one in North Korea between 2018 and 2019, and denuclearization-related content was included in each of them.

The close ties between North Korea and Russia had strained China-North Korea relations for a while. However, in September, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un visited Beijing, attended China's "80th anniversary of victory" military parade, and held talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping, declaring the restoration of friendly relations. The absence of denuclearization discussions at that meeting raised concerns that China might be tacitly condoning or neglecting North Korea's claim of being a nuclear-armed state.

The outcome statement released by China after the meeting between Kim Jong Un and Xi Jinping also made no mention of "denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula." The two countries had held four summit meetings in China and one in North Korea between 2018 and 2019, and denuclearization-related content was included in each of them.

This has led to concerns that China may be tacitly condoning or neglecting North Korea's claim of being a nuclear-armed state.

Zhao stated that China's official avoidance of mentioning "denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula" reflects a "broader recalibration" that prioritizes strategic competition with the United States. He added, "China appears to have concluded that keeping North Korea close and maintaining its geopolitical influence on the peninsula is more important than cooperating with the United States to deter the proliferation of North Korean nuclear weapons."

Patrick Cronin, senior director of the Asia-Pacific Security Program at the Hudson Institute, characterized China's shift in stance as a "subtle protest" against the US strengthening extended deterrence with South Korea and Japan, and a "way to indirectly circumvent international pressure to deter North Korea's nuclear program."

Some also pointed out that with US President Donald Trump's "approval" of South Korea's development of nuclear-powered submarines, China no longer has a reason to express support for "denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula."

Kang Jun-young, professor of Chinese studies at Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, told SCMP that this white paper "indirectly expresses" China's view that denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula "will be difficult to achieve" given that both North and South Korea are pursuing the development of nuclear-powered submarines.