Cho Seung-rae, head of the Democratic Party's local election planning group and secretary-general, holds a press briefing at the National Assembly on January 8, after concluding a closed-door full meeting of the election planning group. [Photo=Yonhap News]

The scale of the upcoming National Assembly by-elections, which will be held concurrently with the local elections in June, is increasingly likely to expand significantly beyond initial expectations. 

Currently, four constituencies have confirmed vacancies due to the loss of parliamentary seats. Political circles project that this number could increase to around six, depending on the appellate and Supreme Court rulings in cases of public election law violations.

The most striking characteristic of these by-elections is that both the confirmed and potential vacant seats are currently held by the Democratic Party. Given that the election schedule overlaps with the local elections, these by-elections are being discussed not merely as supplementary elections but as potential barometers of public sentiment midway through the current administration's term.

As of now, four individuals have been confirmed to have lost their parliamentary seats.

In Incheon's Gyeyang-eul, Representative Lee Jae-myung resigned upon his election as president. In Chungnam's Asan-eul, Representative Kang Hoon-sik resigned following his appointment as Chief of Staff to the President.

Additionally, areas where election-nullifying rulings have been confirmed due to public election law violations have been added.

In Gyeonggi's Pyeongtaek-eul, Representative Lee Byung-jin, and in Jeonbuk's Gunsan, Gimje, and Buan-gun-gap, Representative Shin Young-dae, lost their seats by Supreme Court ruling and are now subject to by-elections. Thus, as of the current assessment, there are four confirmed by-election constituencies.

Political attention is now focused on constituencies where the possibility of by-elections remains open. Representative Yang Moon-suk of Gyeonggi's Ansan-gap and Representative Heo Jong-sik of Incheon's Dongmi-chul-gap are notably being mentioned.

Representative Yang Moon-suk was found guilty in his appeal trial on charges of violating public election law and is currently awaiting the Supreme Court's final judgment.  

Representative Heo Jong-sik received a guilty verdict in his first trial and is currently undergoing an appellate review. In both cases, if a conviction is upheld by a higher court, it could lead to the loss of their parliamentary seats.

In such a scenario, projections suggest that the number of by-election constituencies could expand to a maximum of six, in addition to the already confirmed four. While these are still at the stage of awaiting court decisions, analyses indicate that the overall election landscape could change depending on the timing of the rulings.

Interpretations also suggest that the concentration of these by-elections in Democratic Party constituencies is not merely coincidental but stems from structural factors.

The analysis points to the fact that the Democratic Party secured a majority of seats in the previous general election, particularly in the Seoul metropolitan area and Honam, which increased the absolute number of potential election law lawsuits. Furthermore, their election strategy, which centered on high-impact messages, has relatively increased their exposure to post-election legal disputes.

Coupled with their position as the ruling party, this has led to an effect where judicial risks are amplified into political burdens.

The fact that these by-elections are held concurrently with the local elections is also a variable. 

There is a high probability that the outcome of these by-elections will reflect an assessment of the administration, along with a potential increase in voter turnout. This structure inevitably places a greater burden of defense on the Democratic Party.

A political insider commented, "Even four constituencies are a considerable burden, but if it expands to six, the significance changes." They added, "These by-elections will be a variable that can influence the interpretation of the overall results of the local elections, not just a regional election."

The final scale of the by-elections will depend on the timing and outcomes of the court rulings. However, based on the current trends, the upcoming June by-elections are increasingly likely to be held on a much larger scale than in previous years.