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Iran's anti-government protests, sparked by economic hardship, appear to be subsiding amidst a bloody crackdown by authorities.
However, there are observations suggesting that the leadership, sensing a threat to the Islamic theocracy's survival, has begun to siphon funds abroad.
According to the American think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW) on the 16th (local time), no protests were detected across Iran for the two days of the 14th-15th.
The Norway-based organization Iran Human Rights (IHR) reported that areas like Tehran and Karaj are "quiet and desolate like ghost towns," with armed military and police forces equipped with AK-47 rifles and shotguns deployed on street corners, creating an atmosphere of heightened tension.
AP news agency also reported, "There have been no signs of protest in Tehran in the past few days, and on the surface, the streets appear to have returned to normal," adding that "it seems the regime has succeeded in suppressing the protests challenging the theocracy through a harsh crackdown that claimed thousands of lives."
The general analysis from various media outlets and organizations is that protests subsided after the Iranian authorities continued a severe crackdown, resulting in large-scale casualties, following a complete internet and communication blackout from the evening of the 8th until the 12th.
Iranian authorities are reportedly continuing the internet blackout for the ninth consecutive day and have imposed a nighttime curfew. IHR described this situation as "effectively martial law."
However, given that the economic difficulties that triggered the protests, such as the sharp decline in currency value, have not been fundamentally resolved, and the authorities may find it difficult to sustain the prolonged deployment of military and police, the embers of protest could reignite at any moment.
Amidst this, there are indications that Iran's leadership is siphoning dollars abroad.
In an interview with Newsmax on the 14th, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated, "The Iranian leadership is transferring millions, tens of millions of dollars abroad or secretly siphoning it off," likening it to "rats fleeing a sinking ship."
Bessent added, "We will track these assets and prevent them from holding onto that money any longer."
Israeli broadcaster N14 reported that "Iranian elites have transferred cryptocurrency worth $1.5 billion (approximately 2.212 trillion won) outside of Iran in the past 48 hours."
The outlet pointed out that Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei, alone siphoned $328 million (approximately 483.7 billion won) to Dubai, United Arab Emirates (UAE), stating that "the regime's leadership is preparing for the future, believing they cannot survive."
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