Zhang Youxia, Vice Chairman of China's Central Military Commission [EPA Yonhap News]With the sudden purge of Zhang Youxia, the second-highest-ranking official in the Chinese military and Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission, and Liu Zhenli, a member of the CMC and Chief of the Joint Staff Department, it is suggested that the 'personnel reshuffling' campaign, using anti-corruption as a slogan, may continue and expand ahead of the formation of the next military leadership.

The Chinese Central Military Commission for Xi Jinping's "third term," which began in 2022, consisted of seven members: Chairman Xi Jinping (who also serves as President and General Secretary of the Party), Vice Chairmen Zhang Youxia and He Weidong, and CMC members Li Shangfu, Liu Zhenli, Miao Hua, and Zhang Shengmin.

However, Li Shangfu, the former Minister of National Defense, was ousted in 2023, and in late 2024, Miao Hua, who was then the Director of the Political Work Department and ranked fifth in the Chinese military, was investigated for corruption, marking the full-scale start of the purges. Last year, former Vice Chairman He Weidong, who was ranked third, also fell from power.

In addition to these events, with the ousting of Vice Chairman Zhang Youxia, considered a "man of power," and CMC member Liu Zhenli on the 24th, only Chairman Xi and Zhang Shengmin, who was promoted to Vice Chairman last year, remain on the Central Military Commission.

Kou Chien-wen, a distinguished professor of political science at Taiwan's National Chengchi University, told Singaporean media Lianhe Zaobao in an interview, "The structure of the People's Liberation Army (Chinese military) will be reorganized, and high-ranking officials will all feel uneasy." He added, "Internal military adjustments will continue and will be relevant to the personnel arrangements of the (next) 21st Military Commission."

Wei Lingling, a China specialist at The Wall Street Journal (WSJ), claimed on X (formerly Twitter) on the 25th that "Thousands of officers have been promoted under Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli, and they now realize they are targets of purges." She also stated, "Mobile phones have been confiscated across all ranks, and all units are on alert."

The fact that the People's Liberation Army Daily, the official newspaper of the PLA, emphasized in an editorial on the same day that "The investigation and review of serious violations of discipline and regulations by Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli once again demonstrate that there are no sacred cows in the Party Central Committee and the Central Military Commission's handling of corruption, and that it is comprehensive and zero-tolerance."

It is interpreted that this also leaves open the possibility of further purges, stating, "No matter how many are involved, they will all be investigated, and no matter how deep, it will all be unearthed, showing a clear stance."

Professor Kou predicted that if more high-ranking military officials fall from power in the future, Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli may have been involved in factionalism.

The interpretation that the political aspect is emphasized is also being raised, given that the People's Liberation Army Daily's editorial that day, while addressing the fall of Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli, cited "violation and destruction of the principle of responsibility of the Chairman of the Central Military Commission" as the main offense, which is related to Chairman Xi Jinping's influence rather than corruption.

There is also speculation that if investigations into past corruption within the Equipment Development Department of the Central Military Commission, which has been identified as a key link in corruption allegations, proceed, authorities could use "anti-corruption" as leverage to target military officials who grew under Vice Chairman Zhang Youxia's influence.

In July 2023, the Equipment Development Department of the Central Military Commission announced a notice seeking reports of procurement-related corruption and crimes that occurred since October 2017, and investigations into corruption within the Chinese military began to accelerate.

At the time, this timeframe was interpreted as a "protective shield" created for Vice Chairman Zhang Youxia, who served as the first director of the Equipment Development Department from November 2015 to August 2017.

This is because Vice Chairman Zhang Youxia and his close associates avoided the crackdown even as former Defense Minister Li Shangfu, the second director of the Equipment Development Department, and Rocket Force officials were successively removed.

Cai Wen-hsuan, a researcher at the Institute of Political Science at Taiwan's Academia Sinica, pointed out that Chairman Xi is "already in a situation where he trusts no one," and therefore, he cannot allow the influence of any individual to continue to exist within the military, making Vice Chairman Zhang's downfall a matter of time.

Researcher Cai also interpreted the removal of Vice Chairman Zhang as a public break by the Chinese military with the "Hong'er Dai" (紅二代, children of the first generation of revolutionaries) group.

Vice Chairman Zhang, who represents the Shaanxi faction (a group with hometown connections to Xi Jinping) within the military, was appointed Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission in 2017. His father, General Zhang Zongxun, was a hometown friend and revolutionary comrade of former Vice Premier Xi Zhongxun, Xi Jinping's father, and Vice Chairman Zhang and Chairman Xi also knew each other from childhood.

Meanwhile, there are also forecasts that the recent series of high-level purges will lead to short-term stability in the Taiwan Strait.

This is due to the observation that the Central Military Commission is effectively in a "state of suspended animation," and that there are not a few vacant positions in key military command roles due to the purges of high-ranking military officials in recent years.

Professor Kou stated, "Most general military training will proceed as scheduled, but if a theater command were to initiate a war, it would take time for newly appointed commanders and Joint Staff Department generals of the Central Military Commission to become familiar with the overall operations, so the Taiwan Strait will be relatively stable in the short term." He added, "Furthermore, from the perspective of China's current leader, an attack on Taiwan is by no means a priority option."