Amid China's ongoing military pressure on Taiwan, Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense (pictured) recently established a Joint Firepower Coordination Center in the Boai Unit in the Dazhi area of northern Taipei. This center will be responsible for coordinating the deployment of firepower across the military at the highest level, according to Taiwanese media reports, including the United Daily News, on the 26th. [Photo=Yonhap News]

The East Asian security environment surrounding Taiwan is once again in flux. 

As Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's remarks on potential joint US-Japan action in the event of a Taiwan contingency have drawn strong condemnation from China, analyses suggest that the regional security calculus is becoming increasingly complex with the revelation that Taiwan is showing interest in South Korean weapon systems due to delays in acquiring US-made weapons. 

Takaichi: "Joint Action with the US in Case of Taiwan Contingency"

In a TV appearance on the 26th, Prime Minister Takaichi stated that in the event of a Taiwan contingency, Japanese and American citizens residing there must be rescued, and depending on the situation, joint action with the United States could be taken. 

She added, "If the US military is attacked and Japan does nothing, the US-Japan alliance could crumble." 

While Takaichi clarified that her remarks were not a premise for military intervention, the possibility of provoking China, which is sensitive to the Taiwan issue, remains. 

Last November, she commented in the Diet that a Taiwan contingency could constitute a "crisis of existence" situation where collective self-defense rights could be exercised, which led to strong backlash from China. Subsequently, China announced export controls on certain goods, including rare earths, further chilling Sino-Japanese relations. 

Amidst this tense situation, signs of change are also emerging in Taiwan's arms procurement strategy. Taiwan has traditionally relied heavily on US-made weapons, but concerns about defense capability gaps are growing due to successive delays in the delivery of major weapon systems. 

The 66 F-16V Block 70/72 fighter jets that Taiwan requested to purchase from the US were initially scheduled for delivery between 2024-26, but due to production delays, there are concerns that some aircraft may be delivered after 2026. 

The AGM-154C precision-guided gliding bomb, which will be equipped on these fighter jets, is also being discussed for delivery between 2027-28, several years later than originally planned. 

The situation is similar for naval assets. The delivery of 24 MK-48 heavy torpedoes and training torpedoes that Taiwan sought to acquire is likely to be delayed until after 2026-28 due to supply chain issues. Furthermore, the delivery of over 60 US-made M109 self-propelled howitzers, requested to strengthen ground forces, has been postponed to after 2026 due to production bottlenecks. 

As the deployment of these core assets is being delayed, there are reports of growing internal demand in Taiwan for "forces that can be immediately utilized in case of an emergency." 

Taiwan Considers K-Weapon Systems Amid US Arms Delivery Delays

In this context, Taiwan has been considering South Korean weapon systems as an alternative. 

According to reports in early January, Taiwan was reportedly considering acquiring approximately 40 K9 self-propelled howitzers, about 100 K2 Black Panther tanks, and around 20 K239 Chunmoo multiple rocket launchers as options to rapidly bolster its forces amidst escalating Chinese military pressure. 

The Chunmoo multiple rocket launcher, in particular, garnered attention as a means to suppress landing forces at long range, given the geographical characteristics of the Taiwan Strait. 

Analyses suggest that Taiwan's focus on South Korean weapons stems from issues such as the political approval process for US-made weapons, uncertainty in delivery timelines, and high cost burdens. 

In contrast, South Korean weapons are considered relatively cost-competitive, have established reliability through combat experience and export cases, and can be deployed relatively quickly. 

However, the prevailing view is that the likelihood of this interest translating into actual contracts is limited. The South Korean government and the Defense Acquisition Program Administration are handling the issue of arms exports to Taiwan with great caution. 

This is because selling weapons to Taiwan could invite backlash and economic pressure from China, and there is also a risk of technology leakage by Taiwanese military officials to China, as well as indirect impacts on the security environment of the Korean Peninsula that must be considered. 

Indeed, the proposed South Korean arms procurements mentioned in the reports remained at the discussion stage and did not lead to official contracts. 

Experts analyze that while the Japanese Prime Minister's remarks, US arms delivery delays, and Taiwan's moves to diversify arms procurement may seem like independent issues, they are in fact closely linked within the broader framework of US-China strategic competition. 

As tensions around the Taiwan Strait escalate, neighboring countries' statements and arms deal discussions are not merely diplomatic rhetoric but matters that will inevitably have a long-term impact on the overall security environment of the Korean Peninsula. 

As tensions surrounding the Taiwan Strait increase, each country's calculations become more complex. 

Hanmiilbo Editorial Department