With the general election in Japan scheduled for the 8th just one day away, it is observed that there are no significant last-minute changes to the strong advantage of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP).

Sankei Shimbun reported on the 7th that a telephone survey conducted by Fuji News Network (FNN) on 1,029 individuals on the 5th showed that support for the LDP in proportional representation remained in the high 30% range, while the largest opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDP), stayed in the low 20% range, showing little change compared to the official start of the election campaign on the 27th of last month.

Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi campaigning for the general election [Yokohama=Yonhap News]

For constituency candidates, the LDP also garnered the most support, just under 50%, while the CDP remained in the mid-20% range.

Earlier, Yomiuri Shimbun reported on the 6th that its review of the final election landscape, based on telephone and internet surveys conducted from the 3rd to the 5th involving 356,000 people, indicated that the ruling LDP was on track to exceed the simple majority of seats (233) in the House of Representatives (lower house) and was even aiming for a "stable majority" of seats (261).

Mainichi Shimbun also reported on the 6th that its analysis of the final election situation, based on surveys, suggested that the LDP has expanded its influence since the beginning of the campaign and has the potential to win over 300 seats on its own, with the ruling coalition including Nippon Ishin no Kai poised to secure two-thirds of the total seats.

This general election, triggered by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's sudden dissolution of the House of Representatives, has seen a strong LDP advantage observed from the outset of the campaign, with an unusually short election period in the middle of winter.

This is attributed to the LDP rallying conservative voters who had previously shifted their support to far-right parties like the Party for Japanese Kokoro, by prominently featuring Prime Minister Takaichi, who holds right-wing views. In contrast, the CDP faced early struggles due to a tight schedule, announcing its party name only about ten days before the candidate registration deadline.

The CDP was formed shortly before the general election through the alliance of the former main opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, and the third largest opposition party, Komeito.

The period between the dissolution of the House of Representatives and this general election is 16 days, the shortest since the end of World War II.

Consequently, some analyses suggest that voter turnout is the only remaining variable.

Asahi Shimbun reported that "each party is paying attention to voter turnout as the vote counting approaches."

A senior LDP official commented, "In this general election, if the voter turnout is low, Komeito's organized vote could have a significant impact."

Komeito, a party rooted in the religious organization Soka Gakkai, is known to have a stable base of 10,000 to 20,000 fixed supporters in each constituency, which can be decisive in closely contested races.

The voter turnout in the previous general election in October 2024 was 53.85%, the third lowest on record.

The fact that this general election is being held in mid-winter, which is unusual, is also considered a variable that could affect voter turnout.

A February election has not occurred in 36 years, since 1990.

Meanwhile, the local meteorological agency forecast that cold air masses would flow over the Japanese archipelago on the 8th, election day, bringing heavy snow, particularly to areas like Kyoto Prefecture, Hyogo Prefecture, Tottori Prefecture, and Shimane Prefecture.

Snowfall is even expected in parts of Tokyo.

Prime Minister Takaichi also urged citizens to "consider visiting early voting centers" during a campaign rally in Kagoshima Prefecture the previous day, stating, "The weather seems to be getting rough ahead of the weekend."