China may attack U.S. military bases in the Asian region, including South Korea and Japan, in response to a U.S. attack on Taiwan, following Iran's example, Hong Kong's South China Morning Post (SCMP) reported on the 12th, citing analysts.

U.S. Kadena Air Base in Okinawa, Japan [SCMP Hong Kong capture]

SCMP reported that Iran's missile attacks on U.S. military bases in the Middle East, which began on the 28th of last month following attacks by the United States and Israel, offer a preview of what China might do in the event of a Taiwan Strait conflict.

While the Donald Trump administration has not disclosed detailed information on the damage to U.S. military bases from Iranian attacks, foreign media reports indicate that at least 11 U.S. military bases in the Middle East, more than half of them, have been affected.

SCMP analyzed that Iran's attacks could serve as a model for potential conflicts in the Taiwan Strait.

Lyle Goldstein, a senior researcher at Brown University's Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs, stated, "Iran's attacks on U.S. military bases near the Persian Gulf demonstrate the possibility that China could target U.S. military bases across the Asia-Pacific region in the event of a Taiwan contingency."

He added, "It has long been suggested that U.S. troops stationed in Japan, the Philippines, and South Korea could be vulnerable to a large-scale Chinese attack."

According to a 2024 report by the U.S. Congressional Research Service, there are 24 U.S. military bases in the Indo-Pacific region, along with 20 military facilities accessible to the U.S. Department of Defense.

Key bases include Kadena Air Base in Okinawa, Japan, and Camp Humphreys in Pyeongtaek, South Korea. SCMP noted that the Philippines has increased the number of its military facilities available to U.S. forces to nine in 2023, with three of them located on Luzon Island, close to Taiwan.

U.S. Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar [SCMP Hong Kong capture] 

Lyle Morris, a senior researcher and China expert at the Asia Society Policy Institute (ASPI), predicted, "In the event of a Taiwan contingency, China would be able to inflict far more precise and extensive damage on U.S. military bases in the Asia-Pacific region than Iran has."

Goldstein also analyzed, "China possesses the capability to inflict severe damage on targeted U.S. military bases in the Asia-Pacific within just a few hours of the initial phase of a military conflict."

He further commented, "However, if the United States chooses not to intervene in a cross-strait (China-Taiwan) conflict, China would also exercise restraint and refrain from attacking U.S. military bases in the Asia-Pacific."

Meanwhile, with the planned transfer of THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defense) interceptor missiles from South Korea to the Middle East, there are observations within China that such a redeployment would benefit China.

Li Yifu, director of Peking University's Taiwan Research Institute and a member of China's National People's Congress, emphasized at a press conference the previous day, "U.S. influence in the Asian region is weakening due to the war with Iran, and the transfer of THAAD to the Middle East will help improve China's ability to blockade the Taiwan Strait."

Li claimed that the Chinese military has significantly improved its ability to block foreign access to Taiwan through large-scale military exercises around Taiwan in recent years.

China has been conducting frequent blockade exercises around Taiwan since the visit of then-U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan in August 2022.

SCMP introduced that since 2022, the Chinese military has conducted seven blockade exercises around Taiwan, focusing on preventing external forces such as the United States and Japan from accessing or supporting Taiwan in the event of an emergency.

Furthermore, Li stated at the press conference that a halt to U.S. arms sales to Taiwan should be declared at the U.S.-China summit during U.S. President Trump's visit to China, scheduled for the end of this month.

The Trump administration had planned a $13 billion arms sale to Taiwan. However, due to China's opposition, the sale was temporarily postponed ahead of the U.S.-China summit.

Chinese President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Donald Trump [SCMP Hong Kong capture]