President Trump [AP=Yonhap News] 

Following the breakdown of ceasefire negotiations between the United States and Iran, U.S. President Donald Trump announced on the 12th (local time) that he would initiate procedures to blockade ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, in his first message after the talks collapsed.

The U.S.'s decision to directly blockade the Strait of Hormuz, which it had been pressuring Iran to keep open, is interpreted as an intention to maximize pressure by cutting off Iran's primary source of funding.

According to U.S. CNN, Iran had been allowing passage for some oil tankers since the start of the war with the U.S., in exchange for blocking the Strait of Hormuz and charging up to $2 million per ship for passage.

Additionally, Iran exported an average of 1.85 million barrels of crude oil per day during the war, an increase of 100,000 barrels per day compared to the preceding three months.

The U.S., which had been blocking Iranian crude oil sales citing Iran's withdrawal from the nuclear deal, partially eased sanctions on Iranian crude oil during this war, concerned about a surge in international oil prices.

This decision was based on the assessment that a complete blockade of Iranian crude oil could further increase pressure for global oil price hikes.

In particular, last month, the U.S. allowed Iranian crude oil waiting at sea on tankers to be sold for one month.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimated that approximately 140 million barrels of Iranian crude oil were supplied to the market during this period, enough to meet global demand for about 1.5 days.

During this process, Iran reportedly secured substantial profits by selling its crude oil at a premium above the international benchmark Brent crude price.

Sales channels, which were previously limited primarily to China, expanded to Western countries, enabling more stable funding for the war.

It appears that the U.S.'s tolerance for the distribution of Iranian crude oil was a reluctant measure to minimize domestic and international backlash resulting from rising oil prices.

The Trump administration also lifted sanctions on hundreds of millions of barrels of Russian crude oil last month.

Amidst this, Trump's announcement of a counter-blockade of Hormuz on this day has led to interpretations that it aims to increase negotiating leverage, even at the cost of short-term oil price increases, as ceasefire negotiations reach an impasse.

The analysis suggests this is a strategy to block Iran's use of the threat of blocking the strait as a bargaining chip and instead for the U.S. to gain leverage by securing control of the strait.

While this could provoke market instability, including short-term oil price hikes, it appears to be based on a calculation to create a more favorable negotiation landscape by cutting off Iran's oil exports and toll revenue in the long run.

Some speculate that President Trump's intention is not to implement a full blockade, but rather to maximize the "deterrent effect" to enhance negotiating power.

However, concerns are also being raised that if the U.S.'s Hormuz blockade measure becomes a reality, global energy markets could become even more unstable, and the burden on economies worldwide could increase.

Furthermore, the geographical characteristics of the narrow strait make U.S. Navy ships vulnerable to drone or missile attacks, which is also cited as a risk factor.

Senator Mark Warner, the ranking Democrat on the Senate Intelligence Committee, told CNN, "I don't understand how blockading the strait is going to pressure Iran to open up the strait," adding, "There's no connection whatsoever."