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Lockdown measures extended beyond 48 hours intensify pressure...direct hit on Iran and China's crude oil exports and imports
Trump and Xi Jinping [Reuters Yonhap News]
The maritime blockade imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump, which has severely restricted Iran's sea lanes, is increasingly appearing to be a multifaceted pressure tactic aimed at China.
After failing to find common ground in the first peace talks last weekend, the U.S. retaliated with a counter-blockade against Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. China is considered the country most affected by this maritime blockade, which has lasted for over 48 hours.
According to Reuters, China imported over 80% of the crude oil exported by Iran last year. China imported crude oil from sanctioned countries like Iran and Venezuela at prices 20-50% lower than market rates to supply its domestic petrochemical companies.
With President Nicolás Maduro being ousted early this year, Venezuelan crude oil came under U.S. control. If this maritime blockade against Iran is prolonged, it will inevitably place a significant burden on the Chinese government, which has been suppressing domestic prices by importing sanctioned crude oil at low costs.
This situation strongly suggests a strategy to indirectly damage China, which has an economic symbiotic relationship with Iran, and use it as leverage to pressure Iran into declaring the abandonment of its nuclear program in the peace talks.
Jennifer Welch of Bloomberg Economics stated on the 15th (local time), "It is possible that Trump is hoping that by hitting China's oil imports, Beijing will pressure Tehran to come to the negotiating table."
In addition, it can be seen as an intention to pressure China, which is believed to be covertly providing military assistance to Iran, thereby neutralizing Iran's resistance and concluding the war favorably.
In an interview with Sky News on the same day, President Trump said, "I heard that China was supplying weapons to Iran, so I sent a letter, and President Xi Jinping responded. I asked President Xi not to do that, and President Xi responded in a letter saying he was not doing so."
President Trump further stated on the social media platform Truth Social, "China agreed not to send weapons to Iran," and had previously effectively targeted China by threatening to impose a 50% tariff on countries providing weapons to Iran.
President Trump also wrote regarding the maritime blockade, "China is very happy that I am keeping the Strait of Hormuz permanently open." He then added, "When I arrive there (Beijing, China) in a few weeks, President Xi will give me a big hug."
This was interpreted as a form of "irony." It appears to be a message that simultaneously taunts President Xi, who must be suffering from the U.S. maritime blockade against Iran, and requests him to persuade the Iranian leadership to adopt a more forward-looking stance in future negotiations.
Whether President Xi will act according to President Trump's intentions remains unknown for now, but the analysis that the U.S. maritime blockade against Iran has had at least a "significant impact" on China is gaining traction.
On the 13th, Chinese Premier Li Qiang met with the Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and stated that "China will play a more constructive role." Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Xiaojun stated at a regular press briefing that "we will continue to strive for the swift restoration of peace and stability in the Middle East and the Gulf region."
Bloomberg assessed that it is significant that Chinese leaders, including President Xi, have broken their "silence" on the Iran war. President Trump, appearing encouraged, is optimistic about the outcome of the peace talks, stating, "There will be two amazing days ahead."
There is also a view that the U.S.'s attempt to blockade Iran and strengthen energy control is a strategic move to secure an advantageous position in the U.S.-China summit scheduled for next month and, in the long term, to curb the expansion of China's global influence.
Iran is considered a key link connecting Asia and Africa in China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) project.
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