This week, the market was shaken by a confluence of tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, a sharp drop in oil prices, and fluctuations in the won-dollar exchange rate. The Seoul stock market first factored in the potential for a recovery in oil prices, exchange rates, and foreign investor flows, rather than solely focusing on prevailing expectations.

 This week's Korean market did not simply embrace optimism.  

On the 13th, the KOSPI fell 0.86% to 5808.62 amidst the breakdown of US-Iran negotiations and renewed tensions in Hormuz, but rebounded 2.74% to 5967.75 on the 14th and rose 2.21% to 6226.05 on the 16th, reclaiming the 6200 level.  

On the 17th, it adjusted down 0.55% to 6191.92 as net foreign selling and exchange rate pressures resurfaced, but looking at the weekly trend alone, the market quickly reversed its course as the worst-case scenario receded.

However, it is still too early to interpret this rebound as a definitive trend reversal.  

The US market, reflecting signals of the resumption of commercial vessel passage through the Strait of Hormuz and expectations for further US-Iran negotiations, saw the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit new highs on the 17th, while oil prices plunged over 11% in a single day. New York reacted not to war news, but to how much a drop in oil prices could lower inflationary pressures.  

Seoul, however, went a step further. Rather than the mere word "peace," it prioritized assessing whether oil prices were actually falling, whether the exchange rate was stabilizing, and whether foreign capital could return to Korea.

Therefore, the conclusion of Money Radar this week is clear.  

Seoul is currently a market that is not buying peace itself, but rather the cost reduction and supply-demand recovery that peace can bring.  

While both appear to be rebounds, if New York first priced in the speed of optimism, Seoul confirmed to the very end whether that optimism could also alter the weak links of Korean assets – the won and foreign investor flows.  

This is why the essence of this week's rally should be called "recovery" rather than "reassurance."

Next week's checkpoints are threefold:  

First, we need to see if the second round of US-Iran negotiations is concretely scheduled. This week's market preemptively reflected expectations of a potential meeting, but expectations, actual meetings, and agreements are distinct stages.  

Second, it is crucial to observe whether international oil prices truly decline further. As Korea is highly dependent on energy imports, falling oil prices simultaneously reduce corporate costs, inflation, and trade balance burdens.  

Third, we need to confirm the simultaneous stabilization of the won-dollar exchange rate and foreign investor flows. The key next week is not the index number itself, but whether the conditions that should accompany this rebound actually materialize.

※ This article is a commentary on market trends, not investment advice. Actual stock prices and fund flows may vary depending on exchange rates, oil prices, geopolitical variables, corporate earnings, and policy changes.