British refinery [EPA Yonhap News]

Warnings have been issued that global oil inventories have fallen to critical levels due to the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz, potentially leading to a 'crisis situation' with prices surging severely within a month.

According to the British daily Financial Times (FT) on the 1st (local time), oil industry players and experts have warned that global inventories of crude oil, gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel will fall to dangerously low levels by the end of this month, causing prices to skyrocket.

Frederic Lasserre, head of research at crude oil trading firm Gunvor, stated, "We don't have months," and warned of "immense pain" as countries might have to halt fuel consumption. He added, "Beyond just gas station prices, industries will shut down and we will enter a recession," predicting that "that inflection point is June."

Amrita Sen, founder of the consulting firm Energy Aspects, stated that if the conflict continues until the end of June, all inventories will be depleted. "Oil prices will be whatever the market dictates. There is no buffer," she said, predicting "a severe upward adjustment for both crude oil and petroleum products."

She anticipates Brent crude futures to trade between $150 and $200 per barrel. Brent crude for June delivery rose to $126 a barrel during intraday trading this week before falling below $110.

Helima Croft, global head of commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, pointed out, "People are starting to realize that the message the U.S. is sending may not reflect the reality."

She predicted that if the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz continues this month, oil prices will surpass the 2022 peak of nearly $140 per barrel.

According to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the U.S. is releasing 1 million barrels of strategic petroleum reserves daily, but as of March 24th, gasoline inventories stood at 222 million barrels, the lowest for this time of year in a decade.

An executive in the oil industry commented, "When U.S. gasoline inventories drop below 210 million barrels, it's going to be quite a spectacle. We're nearly at a point where we'll see the market truly twist and turn."