An image synthesizing the Yeouido skyline with oil storage facilities, data centers, and financial graphs, representing the interconnected structure of oil prices, finance, and AI infrastructure. [Photo: Composite by Hanmi Ilbo]

The theme for this week's market trend is "Reaffirmation Amidst Uncertainty."

This week's market cannot simply be called a rally driven by tech stocks.

Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and the burden of rising oil prices clearly shook the market. The US Federal Reserve's April Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) lowered expectations for interest rate cuts. However, these factors alone do not fully explain this week's market movements.

Amidst this uncertainty, the market reaffirmed the strength of Big Tech earnings and investments in Artificial Intelligence (AI) infrastructure. While oil prices and interest rates destabilized the market's backdrop, earnings and capital expenditures held its center.

This week, Money Radar's question is singular:

Why did the market remain on course despite the turbulence?

The answer lies in AI infrastructure. The market no longer views AI as just a vague growth theme. It is observing how much Big Tech companies are actually spending and how that money is flowing into semiconductors, servers, cloud computing, power, and data centers. The focus has shifted from growth narratives to the tangible flow of orders and capital investment.

Three structures were confirmed in this week's market.

First, oil prices amplified market uncertainty. The stalemate in US-Iran negotiations, the risks in the Strait of Hormuz, and the rise in international oil prices are variables that can simultaneously impact inflation and interest rate expectations. Rising oil prices increase corporate costs, reduce consumer spending power, and weaken the Fed's justification for interest rate cuts. This is why the market has been sensitive to oil prices.

Second, the FOMC reduced expectations for interest rate cuts. The Fed held interest rates steady and maintained a cautious stance, citing inflationary pressures and Middle Eastern uncertainties. However, it did not entirely close the door on potential rate hikes. While the retreat in rate cut expectations is a burden for the market, the fact that fears of further tightening did not escalate served as a defensive line.

Third, Big Tech earnings once again confirmed the demand for AI infrastructure. The market is no longer looking solely at revenue and profit. It is now considering whether AI investments are translating into actual cloud revenue, whether capital expenditures are leading to demand for semiconductors and power infrastructure, and whether these investments can be recouped through cash flow.

Therefore, the theme for this week's market trend is "Reaffirmation Amidst Uncertainty."

The market is not at ease. The burdens of oil prices and interest rates still remain. However, the market has reaffirmed what needed to be reaffirmed amidst the uncertainty. AI investments have not ceased, Big Tech companies are still spending on infrastructure, and this spending can be linked to the semiconductor, power equipment, and data center supply chains that the Korean market is focused on.

The conclusion for this week's market can be summarized as follows:

"Oil prices shook the market's backdrop, while AI infrastructure held its center."

Next week's check points are threefold.

First, the possibility of renewed oil price increases. If risks in the Strait of Hormuz escalate and international oil prices face resistance at their highs, inflation and interest rate expectations could both be shaken.

Second, the interpretation of capital expenditures following Big Tech earnings. The market will scrutinize not just the expansion of AI investments themselves, but also which industries and companies' revenues are linked to these investments.

Third, the supply and demand for semiconductors and power infrastructure in the Korean market. The key will be whether AI infrastructure demand translates into actual foreign buying and upward revisions of earnings forecasts.

※ This article is a commentary on market trends, not investment advice. Actual stock prices and fund flows may vary depending on exchange rates, oil prices, geopolitical variables, corporate earnings, and policy changes.