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Republicans are eyeing opportunities to reclaim key districts in their bid to win back the House.
A new poll from the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) shows Republicans performing strongly in several Democratic strongholds that Donald Trump won in 2024.
The NRCC released its poll findings on Thursday, showing Republicans leading or tied in five key battleground districts as they seek to expand their House majority despite facing traditional midterm headwinds.
"House Democrats are in political peril in districts that rejected their candidates in the last election," NRCC Chairman Richard Hudson (R-NC) said in a statement to Politico. "This polling supports the NRCC's strategy to go on offense, expand the map, and pick up seats to put Democrats on the defensive and make their path to minority status even more difficult."
One of the most promising opportunities for Republicans appears to be Maine’s 2nd Congressional District. With Democratic Rep. Jared Golden opting out of a re-election bid, making the seat open, Republican former Gov. Paul LePage holds a commanding lead over two Democratic contenders.
LePage leads state Sen. Joe Baldacci and state Auditor Matt Dunlap by an identical 50% to 40% margin, according to the poll.
In Washington’s 3rd Congressional District, Democratic Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez, despite overcoming strong Republican challenges in the past, is now trailing Republican state Senate Minority Leader John Brown by 7 percentage points.
The remaining three districts surveyed by the NRCC are essentially tied within the margin of error.
In Texas’s 34th Congressional District, Republican Eric Flores narrowly leads Democratic Rep. Vicente Gonzalez 41% to 40%.
In New Mexico’s 2nd Congressional District, Democratic Rep. Gabe Vasquez is narrowly ahead of Republican Greg Cunningham 43% to 41%.
In North Carolina’s 1st Congressional District, Republican Laurie Buckhout and Democratic Rep. Don Davis are tied at 41%.
In the 2024 presidential election, Trump won all five of these districts, with margins of victory ranging from 2 percentage points in New Mexico’s 2nd Congressional District to 11 percentage points in the newly redrawn North Carolina’s 1st Congressional District.
Republicans are banking on a favorable political landscape in this election. Democrats will need to defend 13 House seats that Trump won in the 2024 presidential election, while Republicans will only need to defend three seats that former Vice President Kamala Harris won.
Republicans also hold a significant fundraising advantage heading into the election. The NRCC currently has $8 million more cash on hand than the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC), and Trump-aligned MAGA groups are said to have about $300 million in reserves.
The NRCC’s polling indicates that Democrats are struggling with unfavorable ratings across the battleground districts.
In Maine’s 2nd Congressional District, favorability for Democrats stood at just 29%, with 61% unfavorable. In Washington’s 3rd Congressional District, favorability was 31% and unfavorability was 59%.
Favorability ratings in the remaining districts hovered in the mid-30s, with unfavorability in the low 50s.
Democrats, however, dismissed the poll results.
“No matter how hard the Republicans try to manipulate polls in House races, there is one outcome that is unavoidable. We will take back the House in November,” said DCCC spokesperson Viet Shelton in a statement to Politico.
The poll was conducted by GOP firm co/efficient from April 25-29, surveying between 842 and 982 likely general election voters in each district, according to the report. The margin of error ranged from +/- 3.1% to +/- 3.5%, according to Politico.
By Sung Ku Hong, Chief Reporter, NNP / Special Contribution, NNP info@newsandpost.com
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