An image visualizing the market trend in the second week of May, influenced by both the AI semiconductor rally and the burden of oil prices and interest rates. [Photo=Hanmiilbo Composite]

The name for this week's trend is "AI Rally's Stamina Test."

The market bought into artificial intelligence (AI) once again. At the beginning of the week, global stock markets started with a rise, buoyed by better-than-expected U.S. employment data and the strength of semiconductor stocks.

U.S. AI semiconductor company Nvidia, U.S. memory semiconductor company Micron Technology, and U.S. semiconductor company Broadcom, among other stocks linked to AI infrastructure, set the market's direction.

The Korean market did not deviate from this trend. AI data center investment, memory supply shortages, and increasing demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) re-emerged as key narratives for the Korean stock market.

However, it is difficult to summarize this week's market as a simple uptrend.

This is because the forces that pushed stock prices up and the forces that pushed them down appeared simultaneously.

On one side, there was the AI semiconductor rally and anticipation for a U.S.-China summit. On the other side, there were risks in the Strait of Hormuz, rising international oil prices, U.S. inflation concerns, and rising long-term interest rates.

While acknowledging AI's growth potential, the market began to recalculate the cost of reflecting that growth in prices.

This week, Money Radar has one question: Can the AI semiconductor rally continue to drive the market further?

Three structures were confirmed in this week's market.

First, AI semiconductors remained the central language of the market.

Big tech companies are directing their cash flow towards data center investment rather than stock buybacks. As long as data center investment continues, demand for graphics processing units (GPUs), high-bandwidth memory, server DRAM, enterprise SSDs, and power infrastructure will move in tandem.

This week's semiconductor rally was not merely a thematic surge but a trend reflecting the sustainability of the AI infrastructure investment cycle.

Second, oil prices and inflation tested the upper limits of the rally.

Instability in the Strait of Hormuz pushed international oil prices up again. Rising oil prices stimulate inflation, and inflation stimulates interest rates. When interest rates rise, the valuation of growth stocks comes under pressure.

The fact that tech stocks faltered after the middle of this week was not due to a disappearance of AI demand, but because the discount rate applied to AI in pricing increased again.

Third, the Korean market confirmed both premium expectations and overheating concerns simultaneously.

The Korean stock market is being re-evaluated as a key market in the AI memory supply chain. Coupled with expectations for inclusion in the MSCI developed markets index, the argument to re-examine the Korean market has strengthened.

However, the rapid surge in prices over a short period provides both foreign and domestic institutions with a rationale for adjusting their positions. The reasons to buy more because Korea is attractive and the reasons to reduce holdings because Korea has become too expensive have both emerged.

This week, the market was driven by AI semiconductors, but oil prices and interest rates limited the pace.

It is difficult to conclude that the rally is over. However, it is also becoming difficult to explain all prices solely in the name of AI from now on.

Stock prices rise on expectations, but as expectations grow, the market also asks about the costs.

The points to watch next week are threefold.

First, we need to confirm whether international oil prices stabilize around $100 per barrel.

Second, we need to see if the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield continues to rise.

Third, we need to distinguish whether the correction in large-cap Korean semiconductor stocks is due to short-term profit-taking or the beginning of foreign position adjustments.

The conclusion of Money Radar this week is as follows:

The market is still buying AI, but from now on, it has begun to calculate both the dream of AI and the reality of interest rates and oil prices together.

※ This article is a reference analysis for understanding market trends and capital flows, not an investment recommendation for specific stocks or financial products. Actual markets and stock prices may vary due to various factors such as interest rates, exchange rates, oil prices, policies, corporate earnings, and supply and demand changes, and the final investment decision and responsibility lie with the investor.