This symbolically illustrates that behind the anticipated growth of AI data centers lie cost issues such as electricity expenses, debt, oil prices, and policy risks. [Photo = Hanmi Ilbo Composite]

The theme of this week's market trend is ‘Costs over Engines.’

This week's market was both a bull run and a testing ground. AI semiconductors remained the engine of the market.

However, the market is no longer just looking at the power of the engine. It has begun to consider the electricity costs, debt expenses, interest rates, oil prices, and policy risks associated with running that engine.

This week, Money Insight poses a single question:

Will the Korean market consume the AI semiconductor cycle as a one-off boom, or will it transform into a capital market premium?

Three structural factors were identified in this week's market.

First, the AI rally continues, but the language of costs has become stronger.

AI data centers require immense amounts of electricity. Data center construction demands substantial capital.

A significant portion of this is financed through debt and project finance (PF) structures. The current investment logic can only be sustained if interest rates stabilize, electricity costs are controlled, and data center profitability meets expectations.

What currently appears as evidence of growth could become the starting point of risk if interest rates rise further.

Second, the Strait of Hormuz risk has become linked to the discount rate for AI growth stocks.

Middle East risk is not solely an issue for energy stocks. Rising oil prices lead to rising inflation, which in turn leads to rising interest rates. Higher interest rates reduce the present value of growth stocks.

Ultimately, the Strait of Hormuz risk is not about oil supply but connects to the valuation of AI growth stocks. This connection is what this week's market demonstrated.

Third, the discussion around a "national dividend" was a preview of the debate on the tax base in the AI era.

The term "national dividend" brings taxes to mind in the market. However, this issue cannot be dismissed as merely a tax hike event.

As AI replaces labor, the existing tax base could weaken. Conversely, countries like Korea, which hold a core position in the AI infrastructure supply chain, can secure a new tax base partly through profits from semiconductor companies, corporate taxes, dividend taxes, and capital gains taxes.

The crucial element is the design.

If the excess profits from a semiconductor super-cycle are distributed immediately in the same year, the market might view this as a political event.

Conversely, if excess tax revenue is accumulated in a long-term fund and its operating profits are used for future generations and social safety nets, the market may interpret this as a national premium.

What the market dislikes more than taxes themselves is unpredictability.

The Korean market is currently facing a rare opportunity.

Simultaneously present are the AI infrastructure supply chain, memory semiconductors, export effects from a weak won, expectations of inclusion in the MSCI developed market index, and the government's commitment to revitalize the stock market.

However, risks are also present in the same arena: sharply risen stock prices, expansion of retail credit, adjustments in foreign investor holdings, rising oil prices and interest rates, and policy uncertainty.

Therefore, the current market is at a stage where it needs to focus on structure rather than direction.

More important than the fact that semiconductors are rising is *why* they are rising; more important than the fact that foreign investors are selling is *why* they are selling; and more important than the government's intention to boost the stock market is *how* it will build confidence in the capital markets.

To transform the AI semiconductor rally into a national premium, corporate earnings alone are insufficient. Predictable tax policies, improved foreign investor accessibility, a structure for long-term capital inflow, and policy credibility are all necessary.

Next week's key points are threefold.

First, we need to see if the actual agreements and follow-up measures after the US-China summit meet market expectations.

Second, we must confirm whether US interest rates and oil prices are re-emerging as central variables in the market.

Third, we need to observe whether the leading AI semiconductor stocks in the Korean market can recover from adjustments and form a new upward axis, or if capital will diversify into energy, defensive stocks, and beneficiaries of a weak won.

This week's conclusion from Money Insight is as follows: AI semiconductors are still the market's engine. However, this week's market warned us not to just look at the engine but also to consider fuel costs and loan interest rates.

※ This article is for reference analysis to understand market trends and fund flows, and is not an investment recommendation for specific stocks or financial products. Actual market and stock prices may vary due to various factors such as interest rates, exchange rates, oil prices, policies, corporate earnings, and supply and demand changes. The final investment decision and responsibility lie with the investor.