Naver's stock price is attempting to rebound around 200,000 won, but the recovery of foreign and institutional inflows, along with the feasibility of the Dunamu and Baemin variables, are emerging as key determinants for future stock price evaluation. [Photo=Hanmi Ilbo Composite]

The force weighing down Naver's stock price is not solely short-selling.

Foreign and institutional inflows have not yet definitively returned.

The Dunamu and Baemin variables are growth momentum, but the core is 'connectivity rights.'

The controversy surrounding Naver's stock price is difficult to explain simply by saying "there is a lot of short-selling." More accurately, one needs to separately examine foreign spot holdings, institutional trading, lending/short-selling flows, ETF fund direction, and M&A variables.

Among these, the key variables currently explaining Naver's stock price are foreign/institutional inflows and the feasibility of M&A execution, rather than short-selling.

Recovered to 200,000 Won, But Trust Has Not Yet Been Restored

Around 9:40 AM on May 22, 2026, the date of this writing, Naver's stock price was trading around 200,000 won. Looking at the price alone, it rebounded to the 200,000 won range after falling to the low 190,000 won range on May 20.

However, it is difficult to immediately interpret this as a trend reversal.

While Naver's stock price is closer to its low compared to its 52-week high of 295,000 won, the market has not yet seen sufficient reasons to re-evaluate Naver as a growth stock. In real-time quote screens, Naver also showed a trend around 200,000 won.

The performance is not in ruins.

Naver recorded sales of 3.2411 trillion won and an operating profit of 541.8 billion won in the first quarter of 2026. This represents a 16.3% increase in sales and a 7.2% increase in operating profit year-over-year. Advertising, commerce, and global C2C businesses contributed to the growth, and financial platform revenue also increased.

However, the decrease in net profit and the burden of AI infrastructure investment are variables that the market needs to continuously monitor.

The issue is not the existence of performance, but the conditions for re-evaluation.

On May 21, KB Securities maintained a 'Buy' rating and a target price of 280,000 won for Naver, while assessing that 2026 will be a period of digesting the burden of e-commerce restructuring and that the growth rate of the core business may continue to slow down.

Conditions for a stock price rebound include a recovery in advertising growth after the introduction of advertising within AI service pages, the expansion potential of financial and C2C businesses, and the visibility of new revenue models.

Short-selling and ETF flows are secondary variables

While short-selling trends should be considered, they are unlikely to be the core variable driving the current stock price movement. The amount of stock on loan (daecha-janggo) can be a potential short-selling volume, but it is not the same as the actual short-selling balance. Stock on loan is the 'ammunition,' and the short-selling balance is the 'remaining position after firing'.

The increased proportion of short-selling transactions on some recent trading days is a signal of short-term pressure, but the structure is not such that the verifiable short-selling balance has accumulated to the same extent as the stock on loan.

Therefore, it is more appropriate to view Naver's weakness not as solely attributable to short-selling, but rather as short-selling transactions occurring during a short-term decline amidst weakened foreign and institutional spot inflows.

Foreign and institutional investors need to return for 200,000 won to be defended

The direct burden on Naver's stock price comes from foreign and institutional inflows.

Even though foreign and institutional investors showed some net buying on May 21, considering the preceding selling trend, it is difficult to conclude that inflows have stabilized and recovered.

For Naver's stock price to defend the 200,000 won level, continuous net buying from foreign and institutional investors is needed, not just a one-day rebound. In particular, the return of long-term institutional funds such as pension funds and investment trusts is more important than short-term inflows, primarily from financial investment firms.

ETF flows also serve as a reference indicator.

There has been a recent trend of foreign capital entering MSCI Korea-related ETFs, but the primary holdings in these ETFs are Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix.

Naver's proportion in ETF holdings is relatively low. An inflow of funds into Korean ETFs does not directly translate into Naver benefiting. If ETF funds are concentrated in semiconductors, Naver will only receive limited benefit from the index rebound.

For Naver's inflows to be considered significantly improved, a trend of funds shifting from semiconductors to platform stocks needs to be confirmed.

A market where retail investors lead can create short-term rebounds. However, for large platform stocks like Naver to rise to 220,000 won, 250,000 won, and 280,000 won, foreign and institutional investors must return simultaneously.

Naver's current problem is not its price, but its trust. The stock price has become cheaper, but foreign and institutional investors have not yet seen sufficient reasons to buy again.

Dunamu and Baemin: The Key is 'Expansion of the Payment Ecosystem'

M&A variables are an indispensable aspect of Naver's analysis.

However, instead of listing them as separate positive factors, they should be viewed as a single trend of 'expansion of the payment ecosystem'.

First, the integration with Dunamu is a confirmed medium-term momentum for Naver. Naver has adjusted the schedule for the comprehensive stock swap between Naver Financial and Dunamu, postponing the shareholders' meeting to August 18 and the transaction closing to September 30. The company explained this adjustment reflects the progress of related regulatory approvals and legal preparations.

The integration with Dunamu is not a lost opportunity, but rather a momentum that remains in the pre-closing stage.

Once the transaction is complete, Naver can bundle Naver Pay, digital assets, Web3, and AI-based financial services into a single medium-term growth story.

However, procedural variables such as approval from the Fair Trade Commission for business combination, financial regulatory approvals, and the reporting of changes in Dunamu's major shareholders remain.

What the market wants to see is not the declaration of "embracing Dunamu," but how Naver Pay and digital finance translate into actual revenue models.

The acquisition rumors of Baedal Minjok should be viewed in the same context.

Naver officially stated in a regulatory filing that there were "no specific decisions made" regarding reports of acquiring Baedal Minjok in a consortium with Uber.

Some reports included details about Uber and Naver forming an 8:2 consortium and expressing an acquisition intent of approximately 8 trillion won, but at the current stage, it is more appropriate to consider this an unconfirmed strategic option rather than a confirmed positive development.

The key question regarding the Baemin acquisition rumors is not "how much will Naver buy?" but "what connectivity rights will Naver gain?"

Given that Uber has secured a 19.5% stake in Delivery Hero, becoming its largest shareholder, and holds an option for an additional 5.6% stake, it is difficult to argue that Naver would have control over Baemin.

In this scenario, Naver's core focus would not be management control, but connectivity rights with Naver Pay, Naver Plus Membership, Maps, Place, local advertising, and order data.

If connectivity rights are secured, Baemin would become an expansion option for lifestyle payments and local commerce, rather than just a simple equity investment. If connectivity rights are not guaranteed, it could remain a limited equity investment rather than a catalyst for Naver's stock re-evaluation.

Ultimately, the Dunamu and Baemin acquisition rumors are not separate issues.

While Dunamu represents the expansion axis for digital finance and Web3, Baemin is a local commerce touchpoint that increases the frequency of lifestyle payments.

When these two axes are connected, Naver can be re-evaluated as a platform that encompasses payments, finance, and local commerce, moving beyond its current search and advertising-centric platform.

However, at present, the Dunamu transaction is pending, and the Baemin acquisition is an unconfirmed option. What the market needs to confirm is execution, not expectations.

The downside is in the low 190,000 won range, and the first hurdle for upside is settling above 220,000 won.

Stock price evaluation should be viewed within this framework.

Naver's first support line is in the 190,000 to 195,000 won range. This level has been tested once for selling pressure after falling to the low 190,000 won range on May 20, rebounding on the 21st, and recovering the 200,000 won mark in early trading on the 22nd.

However, if foreign selling pressure intensifies again, institutional defense weakens, and short-selling transactions increase, the 181,000 won range, which is near the 52-week low, could re-emerge as a key support level.

If the low 180,000 won range is breached, it could lead to a phase of re-evaluating the bottom rather than a simple correction. In this case, the risk level should be considered up to around 175,000 won.

However, this is a downside scenario that could occur if performance deterioration, simultaneous weakness in foreign and institutional investors, increased AI investment costs, delays in the Dunamu transaction, and the cost burden of the Baemin acquisition rumors all overlap.

The upside target is an initial objective of recovering to the 210,000 to 220,000 won range.

To surpass this range, not just a technical rebound, but a shift to net buying by foreign investors, a return of institutional buying, and stabilization of short-selling balances need to be confirmed simultaneously.

The 230,000 to 250,000 won range is a secondary target that could open up when growth stories such as AI advertising, e-commerce profitability, Naver Pay, Dunamu, and Baemin connectivity rights are confirmed by numbers.

The medium-term upside target can be set in the 260,000 to 280,000 won range. However, this price range is not achievable solely through the resolution of undervaluation.

At least one of the following must be confirmed by actual figures: a recovery in core business growth rate, monetization of AI advertising, improvement in e-commerce profitability, or new revenue models in finance and digital assets.

Currently, Naver may be a cheap stock. However, the market has not yet seen sufficient reasons to buy again.

While short-selling balances are not dominating the stock price, the reduction in foreign spot holdings and the lack of institutional defense are delaying the recovery of inflows. Additionally, the M&A variables of Dunamu and Baemin could open up growth stories, but their execution and connectivity rights have yet to be verified.

The one-line conclusion is this: Naver's problem is not its price, but its trust.

The stock price has become cheaper, but foreign and institutional investors have not yet seen reasons to buy again, and the M&A momentum has not yet passed the test of 'connectivity rights'.

※ This article is for reference and analysis to aid understanding, not investment advice. Actual investment decisions and responsibilities lie with the investor, and stock prices may vary due to various factors.