Trump and Putin met in Osaka in June 2019. Yonhap News

U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin will hold a summit in Alaska on the 15th (local time). 

This meeting is the first U.S.-Russia summit since the start of Trump's second term in January and the first in-person meeting between the leaders of the two countries since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

It is seen as a critical juncture for the "mediation diplomacy" that President Trump has been pursuing to end the war in Ukraine since returning to the White House, and it is expected to significantly influence whether the war, which has lasted for nearly three years and six months, will enter a phase of resolution.

The key question is whether a ceasefire proposal that Ukraine might consider accepting will be formulated at this summit, which appears likely to be held without Ukraine's participation.

Currently, President Putin is reportedly willing to declare a ceasefire if Russia's territorial claim is recognized for Crimea, which was annexed in 2014, as well as for Donetsk and Luhansk in eastern Ukraine, known as Donbas.

Regarding the war in Donbas, Russia has fully occupied Luhansk and is currently largely in control of Donetsk. The Ukrainian army is holding its ground in western Donetsk, using key cities as defensive strongholds.

Ultimately, President Putin is showing no fundamental change in his stance of making the Ukrainian territories occupied by Russian forces since the 2022 invasion part of Russian territory. However, he appears to have dropped some demands, such as the demilitarization of Ukraine and regime change, which seemed to leave little room for negotiation.

In response, Ukraine and European countries such as the United Kingdom, Germany, and France have established negotiation principles: a principle of reciprocity, where if Ukraine withdraws from certain areas, Russia must also withdraw from other areas, and if Ukraine cedes some territory to Russia, it must be accompanied by firm security guarantees, such as Ukraine's accession to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), according to the Wall Street Journal (WSJ).

With an arrest warrant issued by the International Criminal Court (ICC), it is also anticipated that President Putin, who has faced exclusion from the West, may seek to use this summit as an opportunity to escape isolation, as it would be his first visit to U.S. soil in 10 years.

Ultimately, the success of the negotiations is expected to hinge on how strongly President Trump pressures President Putin.

The United States has previously demanded that Russia return control of the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions of Ukrainian territory to Ukraine. If President Trump can elicit a forward-looking stance from President Putin on this matter, subsequent negotiations are likely to gain momentum.

Hankook Ilbo, Yonhap News