The Strait of Hormuz and the oil tanker 'Zorya' passing through it, photographed off the coast of Musandam, Oman, on June 25, 2026. [REUTERS/Stringer]Despite the U.S. and Iran signing a memorandum of understanding (MOU) to end hostilities and agreeing to pursue follow-up negotiations, continued mutual attacks have left the prospects for normalizing the Strait of Hormuz highly uncertain.

Although both sides signed the MOU on the 17th, recent skirmishes over the past few days have demonstrated their willingness to use military force against one another to assert control over the Strait of Hormuz.

In particular, over the weekend, both sides intensified their rhetoric, accusing the other of violating the ceasefire agreement and engaging in a show of force against each other's military installations.

According to the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) and other sources, three vessels attempting to pass through the Strait of Hormuz between the 25th and 27th were targeted by drone strikes, for which Iran has been held responsible.

Subsequently, on the 27th, the U.S. military conducted airstrikes on Iranian air defense systems and military infrastructure, and on the 28th, Iran launched missiles at the U.S. Fifth Fleet base in Bahrain and the Ali Al Salem Air Base in Kuwait.

Talks that were reportedly scheduled to be held in Switzerland between the two sides on the 28th were cancelled.

However, The New York Times (NYT) reported that, according to experts, neither side appears to want a return to full-scale war.

According to Reuters, a U.S. government official stated on the 28th (local time) that both countries would pause attacks on one another, telling reporters, "Ships can move freely."

Previously, the U.S. political news outlet Axios reported on the 28th, citing a U.S. official, that the two sides would meet in Doha, Qatar, on the 30th to resume talks and discuss the issue of the Strait of Hormuz.

Iranian authorities have yet to issue an official statement regarding the resumption of talks or the cessation of mutual attacks mentioned by U.S. officials.

Even under an optimistic scenario where the U.S. and Iran resume dialogue and all negotiations proceed smoothly, observers suggest that it will take a significant amount of time to actually normalize passage through the strait.

This is due to physical obstacles in addition to political and military tensions.

The Financial Times (FT) analyzed on the 28th that due to mines laid by Iran, it would take months for shipping traffic to return to pre-conflict levels, even if a peace agreement remains in place.

According to Arsenio Dominguez, Secretary-General of the International Maritime Organization (IMO), it is estimated that Iran has laid approximately 80 mines in key shipping lanes in the strait.

Furthermore, the Pakistani government has publicly confirmed sightings of mines during the month of June.

Takaya Soga, CEO of NYK Line, a Japanese shipping company that operates around 900 vessels, pointed out to the FT, "The navigable lanes are extremely limited, forming a very narrow corridor," adding, "We still have a long way to go before we return to the state we were in before the closure of the Strait of Hormuz."

He explained that due to the threat of mines, only two very narrow lanes—one near Larak Island off the Iranian coast and one further south near Oman—remain usable.

CEO Soga projected, "Even if we are able to enter and exit properly, for the time being, we are talking about less than half of the normal volume of goods."

He further expressed concern that if Israel continues its military operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon, there remains a real possibility that Iran could take measures to close the Strait of Hormuz, citing a breach of ceasefire conditions.