Vessels in the Strait of Hormuz near the coast of Bandar Abbas, Iran, on June 30, 2026. Provided by Amirhosein Khorgooi/ISNA/WANA (West Asia News Agency), via REUTERS.

U.S. President Donald Trump's plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz appears to be proving effective. Newsmax reported on the 3rd (via Yonhap News) that the strongest signs yet are emerging that vessels transiting the strait are returning to normal operations.

With the 60-day truce between the U.S. and Iran leading to a steady increase in commercial shipping volumes, concerns over long-term global oil supply disruptions are easing, and crude oil prices are falling.

New maritime data shows that as shipping companies cautiously resume voyages through the Persian Gulf, vessel traffic through the strategic waterway has increased more than fourfold compared to last week.

According to the maritime intelligence platform Signal, while the number of traceable daily vessel movements in and out of the Gulf was limited to just one or two for most of the conflict, it rose to eight on July 1, based on a 7-day moving average.

However, the number of vessels passing through the strait with their transponders turned off is estimated to be significantly higher. One study estimated that as many as 40 ships per day passed through the strait last week.

Although still far below pre-war levels, this rebound indicates a significant improvement in the confidence of commercial carriers.

Before the conflict erupted, approximately 135 ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz daily, transporting about one-fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade.

The increase in maritime traffic is already having a substantial impact on global energy markets.

Brent crude prices have fallen to pre-war levels for the first time since the outbreak, as traders increasingly believe that the worst of the supply disruptions has been avoided.

This decline reflects growing confidence that Gulf oil-producing nations—including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Iraq, and Kuwait—will be able to resume shipping oil to international markets without disruption.

Several major shipping companies have confirmed these improvements.

German container shipping giant Hapag-Lloyd stated that four of its ships previously stranded in the Persian Gulf had safely exited, and the Danish shipping leader Maersk reported that two of its vessels successfully transited the strait last week.

A significant portion of recent traffic consists of oil tankers.

According to Lloyd's List Intelligence, total vessel movements—including so-called "dark voyages" where ships disable GPS tracking to reduce the risk of being targeted—increased to 258 during the week ending June 28.

This represents more than a fourfold increase compared to the 41 voyages recorded during the first week of the crisis in March.

Many departing tankers are carrying crude oil that had been loaded before the war and stored at sea while awaiting safer maritime conditions.

Iran is also accelerating its exports.

Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Iran’s chief negotiator, stated that since the U.S. lifted its maritime blockade, Tehran has exported approximately 40 million barrels of crude oil and has been able to sell it at prices about 20% higher than pre-war levels.

Reportedly, the operation of more than 60 oil tankers has recently been linked to Iranian oil exports, taking advantage of temporary sanctions relief granted under the truce agreement.

Exports from neighboring Gulf oil states are also showing signs of recovery.

Several tankers belonging to the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) successfully passed through the strait this week using a southern route that follows the coastline of Oman. This route is reportedly protected by an air defense umbrella provided by U.S. and Omani forces.

Despite the improved outlook, significant risks remain.

The International Maritime Organization (IMO) estimates that Iran laid approximately 80 naval mines in the strait during the conflict. These mines have not yet been cleared, preventing the full reopening of two major international shipping lanes.

Instead, commercial vessels are utilizing alternative routes.

Some ships are using routes designated by Iran, which require approval from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Others are sailing closer to Omani territorial waters under enhanced security measures.

Industry experts warn that the current increase in traffic reflects not only improved security but also economic necessity.

Jakob Larsen, Head of Safety and Security at the world shipping association BIMCO, told the Financial Times, "It is hard to say for sure whether this is due to increased confidence or people willing to take risks," adding, "At some point, shipowners will become willing to take extra risks to get their ships moving."

Improved security conditions are also reducing transport costs.

Spot charter rates for Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) on the Hormuz route, which soared to about $500,000 per day on June 23 when uncertainty peaked, have since fallen to approximately $294,000 per day as vessel supply has increased and carriers have regained confidence.

Maritime insurance premiums have also dropped significantly.

According to the insurance broker WTW, war risk premiums have fallen to about 2% of the vessel's value, down from approximately 7% immediately after the truce took effect, significantly lowering the cost of shipping oil through the Gulf.

For energy markets, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz marks a major psychological turning point.

Just a few weeks ago, investors feared that a long-term blockade of the Strait of Hormuz would cut off about 20% of global oil supplies, potentially pushing crude prices well above $100 per barrel and reigniting global inflation.

However, the increase in tanker traffic, the recovery of exports in the Gulf region, and the decline in transport and insurance costs are restoring confidence that one of the world’s most critical energy conduits is gradually returning to normal.

U.S. NNP = Representative/Editor-in-Chief Sung Ku Hong / Special Report NNP info@newsandpost.com