U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin. AP Yonhap News

U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin dismissed concerns about a potential U.S. recession, stating that the economy will improve next year thanks to the Trump administration's various policies.

In an interview with NBC News on the 23rd (local time), when asked which sectors of the U.S. economy were in recession, Mnuchin replied, "Clearly, the housing sector has struggled, and interest-rate sensitive sectors are in recession."

However, when asked about the risk of the entire economy falling into recession, he said, "No. I'm very confident about 2026."

He predicted that Americans' real incomes will increase due to "significant refunds to working families in the first quarter of 2026" stemming from policies such as various tax exemptions and deductions for automobile loan interest income included in the "Tax Cuts and Jobs Act" enacted in July.

He also stated that job growth in the United States, driven by trade agreements finalized by President Trump, will lead to economic growth in 2026 without causing inflation.

When pointed out that President Trump's recent exemption of various agricultural products from tariffs due to price pressures was an acknowledgment of the inflationary effect of tariffs, Mnuchin countered that there has been no change in inflation when looking solely at import prices.

"Inflation has risen because of the service economy and has nothing to do with tariffs," he said, explaining that the agricultural tariff exemption is part of trade negotiations that have been ongoing with Latin American countries for the past 6 to 8 months.

He attributed the economic damage equivalent to 1.5% of the gross domestic product (GDP) caused by this year's government shutdown to the Democratic Party, also blaming them for the prolonged shutdown.

In an op-ed for The Washington Post (WP) published on the same day, he also argued that the Republican Party should abolish the Senate filibuster, which made the shutdown possible. The filibuster is a legal means of obstructing legislative proceedings through unlimited debate in Congress, and overcoming it in the Senate requires securing 60 out of 100 votes. Currently, the Republican Party holds a majority with 53 Senate seats but falls short of the 60 seats needed to overcome the filibuster, making it impossible to prevent the shutdown.

In his interview with NBC News, Secretary Mnuchin stated that while he had not discussed President Trump's proposed peace plan for Ukraine with the President, "I am confident that the peace process is moving forward."

Furthermore, Mnuchin announced that the government would make an announcement regarding health insurance premium reductions sometime this week.

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