Lee Jae-myung and Xi Jinping walk at the official welcoming ceremony held at Gyeongju National Museum in Gyeongbuk on November 1 last year. Yonhap News

Lee Jae-myung will visit China from the 4th to the 7th as a state guest. With the heads of major domestic conglomerates such as Samsung, SK, Hyundai, and LG, and representatives from about 200 mid-sized companies accompanying him, this visit is not merely a diplomatic schedule but carries significant implications for South Korea's overall diplomatic, security, and economic path.

The issue is whether this visit at this particular time truly serves the national interest. On the contrary, there are concerns that it is akin to digging one's own political and national grave.

Let us recall the past APEC summit. While stating to the United States that it "does not support China's invasion of Taiwan," Lee Jae-myung simultaneously told Xi Jinping that he "unwaveringly supports the one-China principle." While this might appear as diplomatic balance on the surface, it is in reality a contradictory stance that fails to earn the trust of either the United States or China.

South Korea is a nation that thrives on exports. Economic cooperation with the free democratic bloc, including the EU and Southeast Asia, led by the United States, is the lifeline of our economy. However, if this visit to China leads these core allies to perceive South Korea not as a strategic partner but as a nation leaning towards China, the consequences will inevitably be severe. The impact on the overall economy, including reduced exports, weakened investment, and restricted technological cooperation, will be unavoidable.

Then, can China fill that void? This is merely a delusion that ignores reality. China has already revealed its intention to bring South Korea's history and identity within its sphere of influence through its Northeast Project. The expectation that China will respect Korea as a truly independent sovereign nation and treat it as an equal is overly naive.

Nevertheless, it is highly probable that after this visit, Lee Jae-myung will promote it as a "successful diplomacy," highlighting outcomes such as the resumption of yuan swaps or economic cooperation with China. However, the world's reserve currency remains the US dollar, and the assertion that China can replace it in the international financial order lacks realism.

The greater problem is security. During the Trump administration, the United States has a precedent of incapacitating regimes and nations through economic sanctions and pressure against various countries, including Venezuela. Even a mere signal that the ROK-US alliance is faltering could make South Korea a target of critical pressure.

This visit to China is not simply a diplomatic move; it can be interpreted as a signal that effectively weakens the ROK-US alliance. This is not an issue that a single politician can handle, but rather a matter directly linked to the survival of the nation. Does an individual truly possess the authority to make such a decision?

It may sound like an exaggeration, but this issue could be the most significant strategic turning point South Korea has faced since the Korean War. I strongly warn that visiting China could become Lee Jae-myung's political grave and a choice that inflicts deep wounds upon South Korea.

◆ Professor Maeng Ju-seong

Professor Emeritus, College of Engineering, Hanyang University

Chairman, Network for Rule of Law and Democratic Solidarity (NPK)