President Trump [AFP=Yonhap News]

A new defense strategy (NDS) announced by the U.S. Trump administration on January 23 (local time) suggests that the ROK-U.S. alliance is shifting to a more asymmetric form, according to U.S. expert analysis.

In an analysis distributed to the press on the 25th, James Kim, Director of the Korea Program at the Stimson Center, a U.S. think tank, stated, "This NDS suggests that the ROK-U.S. alliance is transitioning to a more asymmetric form, with an expansion of Korea's responsibilities while the U.S. reduces its military role in the region under a broader strategy of selective engagement."

The NDS, released by the U.S. Department of Defense on January 23, stated, "Korea has the capacity to take the lead in deterring North Korea, backed by a strong military, high levels of defense spending, a robust defense industry, and mandatory military conscription."

Furthermore, it described the U.S. support in this process as "important yet more limited."

The NDS also stated, "This recalibration of responsibility [for deterring North Korea] aligns with U.S. interests in updating its military posture on the Korean Peninsula."

Kim commented, "While it is still unclear how the new military posture will be implemented, the core point is that the new U.S. strategy demands significant changes to the status quo on the Korean Peninsula."

He added, "There are already signs indicating that this transition is underway in South Korea," citing the ongoing work to transfer wartime operational control (OPCON) as an example. The Lee Jae-myung administration aims to achieve OPCON transfer during its term.

Kim further pointed out that the U.S. reassessment of its geopolitical priorities "suggests a potential for limited U.S. engagement in regions outside the Western Hemisphere."

This implies that the Trump administration's prioritization of security in the Western Hemisphere, encompassing the U.S. mainland and Latin America, could lead to changes related to the role and scale of U.S. Forces Korea.

Kim also noted that the "revitalization of the domestic defense industrial base" was addressed as a major objective in the NDS. He stated that South Korea, now the world's 10th largest arms exporter, could "reconfigure the alliance by expanding the types and scope of defense industry cooperation."

Kim evaluated, "South Korea, like other allies, will be asked to take on greater responsibility in its own security domain, while the U.S. will focus on securing its homeland and Western Hemisphere, continuing to strengthen 'deterrence by denial' in the Indo-Pacific region. The ROK-U.S. alliance, with its 70-year history, has finally reached a significant turning point."

He added, "How South Korea navigates this transition strategically, operationally, industrially, and diplomatically will determine the future of the alliance, as well as the future of the Northeast Asian security structure."