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US Federal Reserve, First Interest Rate Freeze Since July Last Year as US Economic Growth Improves
  • Yonhap News
  • January 29, 2026 at 8:55 AM
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Trader at the New York Stock ExchangeTrader at the New York Stock Exchange [AP Yonhap News]

The Federal Reserve (Fed), the central bank of the United States, held a meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) on the 28th (local time) and decided to keep interest rates unchanged, which is interpreted as a reaffirmation of the existing stance of key Fed officials to wait and see the future economic situation.


As the nomination of the next Fed chair, who will succeed Jerome Powell, is imminent, market participants are keenly watching who will take over the chairmanship after Powell's term expires.


The market and experts had expected the Fed to freeze interest rates at the current 3.50-3.75% prior to the interest rate decision today.


Today's decision by the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged comes six months after the previous freeze in July of last year. The Fed had consecutively lowered interest rates by 0.25 percentage points at the FOMC meetings in September, October, and December of last year.


According to the Fedwatch tool from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), the futures market reflected a 99.4% probability of the Fed holding rates steady ahead of the FOMC meeting's conclusion, and experts were unanimous in their forecast of a January freeze.


In a press conference last December, Fed Chair Powell stated, "Following the policy adjustments since September, our policy is now within a reasonable range of our estimate of the neutral level," and "We are in a good position to wait and see how the economic situation evolves," indicating a cautious approach to further rate cuts for the time being.


Building of the U.S. Federal ReserveBuilding of the U.S. Federal Reserve [AFP Yonhap News]

Following today's interest rate freeze, the Fed's policy statement expressed a more optimistic view of the U.S. economic situation than before, suggesting that the freeze stance could continue for some time.


While the FOMC described economic growth in December as "moderate," the January statement characterized it as "solid," using more positive language.


Regarding unemployment, the December statement noted a "slight increase through September," whereas the January statement stated it "showed signs of stabilization."


Furthermore, the phrase "downside risks to employment have increased in recent months," which had provided a rationale for rate cuts up to December of last year, was removed from the January statement.


Fed Chair Powell also clearly mentioned the improvement in U.S. economic growth during his press conference today. He said, "The outlook for U.S. economic growth has shown clear improvement since the December FOMC meeting."


He added, "All the additional information, including released economic indicators and economic sentiment reflected in the Beige Book (Fed's report on economic conditions), suggests that growth has started the year on solid footing."


Regarding the labor market, he stated, "The indicators suggest that labor market conditions may have stabilized after a period of gradual weakening."


Trader at the New York Stock ExchangeTrader at the New York Stock Exchange [New York Reuters=Yonhap News]

Market attention was focused on what stance Fed Chair Powell would take regarding the recent criminal indictment move by the U.S. Department of Justice targeting him, but Powell avoided further escalation by refraining from additional comments on the Trump administration's pressure, including the issuance of a subpoena against him.


Earlier, on the 11th, Powell released a public statement stating that he had received a subpoena to appear before a grand jury in relation to renovations at the Fed's building, characterizing the investigation as an unprecedented threat to the Fed's independence by the executive branch.


This was the first time Powell had publicly criticized the Trump administration's attacks against him.


Immediately after the subpoena issuance became known, central bank governors worldwide and key Wall Street figures expressed concerns about the infringement of the Fed's independence. However, President Trump continued his offensive on the 13th, calling Powell a "bad chairman" and stating, "I hope he resigns soon."


Today's press conference by Powell following the FOMC meeting attracted attention as it was his first public appearance since issuing the statement regarding the subpoena. However, Powell remained tight-lipped, responding to politically sensitive questions with "I have nothing to say."


Fed Chair Powell leaving a press conferenceFed Chair Powell leaving a press conference [Washington AP=Yonhap News]

Amid the ongoing pressure from President Trump on the Fed, market participants are also increasingly interested in potential policy shifts at the Fed after a change in chairmanship.


With President Trump having announced that he would announce a nominee for the next Fed chair in the "near future," Kevin Warsh, a former Fed governor, and Rick Rieder, Chief Investment Officer of Global Fixed Income at BlackRock, have recently emerged as prominent candidates for the next Fed chair.


Amid growing concerns about the infringement of central bank independence following the subpoena issued to Powell, Kevin Hassett, Chairman of the White House National Economic Council (NEC) and previously considered a strong candidate, has seen his nomination prospects diminish significantly, with his close ties to President Trump becoming a burden.


President Trump has also recently indicated his preference for Hassett to remain at the White House as NEC Chairman.


Rieder is considered the only pure market professional among the prominent candidates for Fed chair, with no prior public service experience.


Rieder is a renowned market expert at BlackRock, overseeing a $2.4 trillion bond investment strategy. He worked at Lehman Brothers for over 20 years, founded and operated R3 Capital Partners, and joined BlackRock in 2009 through an acquisition of his company.


Rick Rieder, CIO of BlackRock's Global Fixed IncomeRick Rieder, CIO of BlackRock's Global Fixed Income [AP Yonhap News]

When asked during today's press conference what he would advise the next chair, Powell said, "First, keep elected politics at arm's length." He emphasized, "The channel for the Fed's democratic accountability is Congress."


Meanwhile, two dissenting votes emerged during today's Fed decision-making process, indicating that opinions among Fed members remain divided.


At today's meeting, Governor Steve Myron, a "dove" (who favors monetary easing), maintained his dissent for a 0.25 percentage point rate cut, following his earlier recommendation for a 0.50 percentage point cut at the December meeting. He is a close associate appointed to the Fed Board by President Trump.


Governor Christopher Waller, also a candidate for the next Fed chair, joined Myron in dissenting with a vote for a 0.25 percentage point cut.


The market largely maintained its expectations for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy outlook for the year following today's rate freeze decision.


According to CME's Fedwatch, the futures market reflected a 29% probability of one 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in December and a 33% probability of two rate cuts, showing little change from the previous day.


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