Cover of the New York Post, as introduced on the White House website. [White House Photo] 

War has reignited in the Middle East. The conflict between Israel and Iran is no longer a 'regional dispute.' With attacks on nuclear facilities, threats of retaliation, and the potential deployment of U.S. ground troops, the Middle East could descend into an all-out war. While the U.S. anticipates a swift and decisive victory, the humanitarian crisis in Gaza remains unresolved. Furthermore, if Iran-aligned and covertly supported forces (such as China) in Lebanon, Yemen, and elsewhere become involved, the conflict could escalate into a protracted war. The current Middle Eastern conflict is not only a fracture in the international order but also a harbinger of a potential World War III, should the spirit of global peace truly dissipate.

Trump repeatedly pursued a hawkish approach and military confrontation regarding the Middle East. Upon taking office, he withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal, reinstated sanctions, and intensified pressure on Iran. His recognition of Jerusalem as the capital of Israel exacerbated regional tensions, and the elimination of Soleimani brought direct U.S.-Iran confrontation into reality. Currently, with the reported elimination of Iran's 37-year dictator, 'Khamenei,' and a declaration to "continue precision strikes until the objective is achieved," military tensions across the Middle East have been elevated to their highest point.   

The Middle Eastern conflict has directly impacted South Korea's security and economy. The 1973 oil shock destabilized the Korean economy, and the 1990 Gulf War tested its export and logistics systems with soaring oil prices. During the 2003 Iraq War, South Korean troops were deployed, expanding its diplomatic and security role. South Korea's industries have long been heavily reliant on Middle Eastern energy and maritime routes, and instability in the region directly affects its economy and exports. The current emergency National Security Council (NSC) meeting highlights how sensitive South Korea is to Middle Eastern instability.

The Risk to the Korean Peninsula from the Dispersion of Deterrence

When the Middle East instability leads to increased maritime freight rates and insurance premiums, the delivery schedules of core industries like semiconductors and automobiles are threatened. For supply chains, time is more critical than price. A delay of one container ship can halt a factory line, and a halted line directly translates to financial losses. If the situation in the Middle East prolongs, it will extend beyond issues of civilian protection and energy. South Korea's security and industrial structure will need to be redesigned.

The rise in oil prices is merely a visible shock. A greater danger lies in the shift of the East Asian balance of power when U.S. deterrence is dispersed. Deterrence does not stem from the quality or quantity of weapons but from messages and signals that clearly define "the line that must not be crossed." As fronts multiply, signals become blurred, and blurred signals lead to miscalculations.  

China and North Korea will likely exploit the concentration of U.S. military power in the Middle East as strategic space. China aims to expand its regional influence, while North Korea is likely to pursue provocations and advancements in military capabilities. If the Middle Eastern conflict is an extension of the U.S.-China competition, cooperation between North Korea, China, and Russia will likely strengthen, and tensions around the Korean Peninsula will rise.  

The flames in the Middle East will inevitably shake the security environment of the Korean Peninsula directly. While the U.S. operation may be a silent warning to the dictatorships of North Korea, China, and Russia, it is chilling to consider that these dictators, feeling threatened, might unite and use the Middle Eastern war as an opportunity for a counterattack, potentially escalating into a Third World War.  

Three Security Strategies South Korea Must Redesign

▷ Restore Alliance Trust. Deterrence is not about the number of equipment but about the other party's clear reception of the message, "this line must not be crossed." When the signal that South Korea and the U.S. will act together under any circumstances is clear, the adventurism of neighboring countries decreases. If the alliance's message wavers, deterrence weakens at that moment.  

▷ Conduct Security Assessments Aligned with Reality. Wars may seem like news from distant lands, but they can seep in through the very cracks we least expect. Energy, maritime routes, supply chains, and cyberspace are all potential battlegrounds. If the Middle Eastern conflict prolongs, South Korea must coolly assess which impacts will shake it first and which areas will emit the 'first rupture sound.'

▷ Restructure Combat Capabilities for Future Battlefields. We are in an era where drones can overwhelm tanks, and cyberattacks precede missile launches. Precision strike, unmanned systems, and information warfare capabilities are not options but conditions for survival. If the nature of warfare has changed but the force structure remains the same, or if the 9·19 military agreement is restored and no-fly zones are expanded under the guise of peace, deterrence will be merely a shell. South Korea's security and combat structure must undergo a 180-degree forward-looking reorganization based on the standard of 'upcoming warfare.'

Crises always infiltrate where preparedness is lacking.  

The vulnerabilities exposed by the current Middle Eastern conflict for South Korea are not solely economic or related to energy. The consistency of security messaging and the maintenance of alliance trust are paramount. As long as the gunfire in the Middle East does not cease, South Korea cannot remain a mere observer. The encroaching shadow of war cannot be evaded through peace policies. This situation must be leveraged to strengthen war deterrence and autonomy, based on the power of alliances.  

The public and military sentiment hopes that the military and security lines will face the current crisis directly, redesign the biased security structure, and overcome all issues that the Middle Eastern crisis may trigger.  

◆ Park Pil-gyu

Editorial Board Member, Hankook Ilbo

40th graduating class, Korea Military Academy