The red line shows crude oil prices, and the blue line shows average U.S. gasoline prices nationwide. [Source: GasBuddy]

With supplies through the Strait of Hormuz, which accounts for more than 20% of global oil transit, jeopardized by escalating Middle East conflicts, analysts expect oil prices to remain elevated in the coming days.

Here is a summary of oil price information compiled by Reuters.

Citibank stated in a report annotation that Brent crude oil prices are expected to trade between $80 and $90 per barrel for at least the next week. However, Citigroup forecasts that oil prices could fall to around $70 per barrel if tensions ease.

Goldman Sachs estimated in a Sunday report that crude oil prices reflect a real-time risk premium of $18 per barrel. They projected that this premium would ease to $4 if only 50% of oil transit through the Strait of Hormuz were interrupted for a month.

In a scenario where liquidity is interrupted for a month, TTF and JKM gas prices could surge by 130%, potentially approaching €74 per megawatt-hour ($25 per mmBtu), according to Goldman Sachs.

Wood Mackenzie stated that oil prices could exceed $100 per barrel if the flow of tankers through the strait does not recover quickly.

In their report, WoodMac analysts said, "This disruption leads to a dual supply shock. Not only is current exports through the strait halted, but we also lose access to OPEC's additional production, and ultimately most of OPEC's spare production capacity – usually a key tool for balancing the global oil market – while the waterway is closed."

OPEC agreed to increase its April production by 206,000 barrels per day (bpd).

According to JPMorgan, crude oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz have plummeted from the usual 16 million barrels to approximately 4 million barrels, with only Iranian crude oil flowing as tanker traffic is suspended.

JPMorgan estimates that Gulf producers have enough storage and tanker capacity to withstand a 25-day supply disruption.

The bank stated that a 3-4 week restriction on passage through the Strait of Hormuz could lead to production stoppages by GCC oil-producing countries and push Brent crude prices above $100 per barrel.

Societe Generale analysts forecasted on Monday that the most probable scenario for crude oil prices would be a temporary surge followed by a partial rebound, as the market regains confidence in supply continuity.

Bernstein has raised its 2026 Brent crude price forecast from $65 to $80 per barrel but expects prices to soar to $120-$150 in an extreme case of prolonged conflict.

Vikas Dwivedi, Global Energy Strategist at Macquarie Group, said that the world can withstand a closure of the Strait of Hormuz for one to two weeks, but the impact on oil prices will sharply increase in the third week and will definitely worsen in the fourth week.

Meanwhile, gasoline prices in the United States appear to be less affected by the surge in crude oil prices. With crude oil exceeding $71 per barrel, the national average gasoline price rose to $3.11 per gallon.

This is an increase of 11 cents overnight. However, this price is similar to or slightly lower than prices from December 2024 during the Biden administration to the first half of 2025 during the early Trump administration. U.S. gasoline prices do not seem to have been significantly impacted by fluctuations in crude oil prices.

Left-leaning media outlets and Democratic politicians have begun promoting this gas price increase as something serious, aiming to incite anti-Trump sentiment by citing Iranian combat operations as the cause for the rise in gas prices.

U.S. NNP= Chief Reporter Sung Ku Hong / Special Correspondent NNP info@newsandpost.com