On November 1, students participating in a nationwide rally to crush labor repression, stop the dispatch of troops to Iraq, and condemn the Roh Moo-hyun administration demand an end to troop deployment and labor oppression, among other things, at the Seoul Station Plaza. 2003.11.01 [Photo=Yonhap News]

There is a recurring question in South Korean politics these days.

“Why hasn’t the administration's approval rating wavered despite the difficult economy?”

The exchange rate is approaching 1,500 won to the dollar, and volatility in the financial markets has increased. Analyses suggest that corporate investment sentiment is also shrinking. However, the political landscape remains largely stable.

Where does this discrepancy, where economic instability and political stability coexist, come from?

From a political perspective, this phenomenon is not unfamiliar.

When the economic situation deteriorates, if the political sphere deflects responsibility to external factors, the support base tends to rally even more. This is a structure where economic instability does not immediately translate into political accountability.

It can be seen that South Korean politics is currently in a phase that reflects this to some extent.

However, this structure has a weakness: external shocks.

External variables can instantly dismantle a political frame. And one of the external variables that is now emerging before South Korean politics is the issue of troop deployment.

Amidst its conflict with Iran, the United States has begun demanding military participation from its allies, citing the need to secure the safety of the Strait of Hormuz.

U.S. President Donald Trump has already publicly mentioned the necessity for key oil-importing nations, including South Korea, to dispatch warships to protect maritime routes. The South Korean government has also indicated a willingness to discuss the matter, leaving the possibility open.

This issue is not a simple diplomatic matter. In South Korean politics, overseas troop deployment has always been a political variable that has created rifts within factions.

The Roh Moo-hyun administration's decision to deploy troops to Iraq in 2003 is a prime example. The conflict at the time was not a confrontation between conservatives and progressives, but rather exploded more intensely within the progressive camp.

While the government decided to deploy troops citing the ROK-U.S. alliance, civic groups and intellectual circles strongly opposed it. This was a collision between "realpolitik" and "anti-war principles" within the progressive camp.

A similar structure is likely to emerge in the current situation.

From the government's perspective, it is difficult to ignore the U.S. request, considering the ROK-U.S. alliance and energy security. The Strait of Hormuz is a crucial route for South Korea's oil imports.

However, from a political standpoint, a decision to deploy troops is likely to trigger a rift within the left-wing camp. This is because anti-war movements, civic groups, and some progressive intellectuals could strongly object to intervention in the war itself.

The more critical issue is that this matter cannot be postponed indefinitely.

In a state of war, military operations do not adhere to political schedules. Once an operation begins, allies must quickly decide whether to participate. It is difficult to maintain a "under review" status for months.

Ultimately, the government will have to make a choice at some point. Will it participate, or will it refuse?

Either way, the political repercussions will be significant.

If they participate, an anti-war debate could erupt within the left-wing camp. Conversely, if they refuse, issues related to the ROK-U.S. alliance and security debates are likely to be raised simultaneously.

The issue of troop deployment is a high-explosive political issue intertwined with ideology, diplomacy, and security.

Perhaps the real variable in South Korean politics right now is not the exchange rate.

The exchange rate shakes the economy, but war shakes politics. And war shakes the political landscape much faster than the economy.

The biggest variable that could erupt in South Korean politics in March may not be the financial markets, but the decision on troop deployment.

The exchange rate shakes markets, but troop deployment shakes factions.